$27.34K
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$27.34K
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11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Nunes" if Amanda Nunes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kayla Harrison at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Harrison" if Kayla Harrison is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official inform
Prediction markets currently price Amanda Nunes as the significant favorite to defeat Kayla Harrison at UFC 324. On Polymarket, the "Nunes" contract trades at approximately 70 cents, implying a 70% probability she retains her title. A 70% chance suggests the market views a Nunes victory as the clear consensus outcome, though Harrison's substantial 30% implied probability indicates a credible threat. This pricing has held with relative stability despite thin overall market liquidity.
The primary factor is Nunes's established legacy as the greatest women's mixed martial artist of all time. Her striking prowess, experience in five-round championship fights, and proven ability to defeat elite grapplers provide a strong technical foundation for the market's confidence. Conversely, Kayla Harrison's odds are driven by her dominant judo pedigree and physical strength, which pose unique stylistic problems. However, the market is likely discounting Harrison due to her relative inexperience in high-level MMA striking exchanges and the significant step up in competition she faces in this debut title fight. The ancillary market predicting a KO/TKO outcome at 56% also reflects the expectation that Nunes's striking advantage will be the fight's decisive factor.
The most immediate catalyst is the official weigh-in on January 23, 2026. Any significant weight-cut issues for either fighter, particularly for Harrison making the 135-pound bantamweight limit, could cause a major odds shift. During the fight itself, the key risk to the consensus is if Harrison successfully implements her grappling game in the early rounds, demonstrating she can control Nunes on the ground. If the fight remains standing past the second round, Nunes's odds would likely strengthen further as her technical striking advantage accumulates. A last-minute injury or withdrawal before fight night would void the market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of a scheduled women's bantamweight mixed martial arts (MMA) bout between Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett on January 24, 2026. The market resolves based on the official winner declared by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), with a 50-50 split resolution for a draw, no contest, or cancellation after February 7, 2026. This fight represents a landmark crossover event in women's MMA, pitting one of the sport's most decorated champions against a dominant force from another promotion. Amanda Nunes, a former two-division UFC champion, retired in 2023 but has since announced a comeback, aiming to reclaim her bantamweight throne. Kayla Harrison, a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and a former Professional Fighters League (PFL) champion, is making her highly anticipated UFC debut after signing with the promotion in late 2024. The bout is a major draw due to the contrasting styles and legendary status of both athletes, generating significant betting and prediction market activity. Interest stems from questions about Nunes's post-retirement form, Harrison's ability to adapt to the UFC's elite level, and the potential for this fight to define a new era in the women's 135-pound division.
The women's bantamweight division (135 lbs) was established in the UFC in 2012, with Ronda Rousey as its inaugural champion. Amanda Nunes's rise began when she defeated Miesha Tate for the title at UFC 200 in July 2016, a landmark event. She then embarked on a historic reign, making five successful title defenses and simultaneously holding the featherweight title, a feat known as 'champ-champ' status. Her retirement in 2023 created a power vacuum, leading to a new champion being crowned. Concurrently, Kayla Harrison was building a legacy outside the UFC. After winning Olympic gold in judo in 2012 and 2016, she joined the PFL in 2018. She went undefeated for six years, showcasing a dominant ground game that overwhelmed opponents. The historical precedent for a high-profile fighter moving from PFL to UFC is limited, but the success of fighters like Justin Gaethje, who transitioned from World Series of Fighting, shows it is possible to immediately compete at the championship level. This fight follows a pattern of superfights designed to crown an undisputed top fighter, similar to when Cris Cyborg faced Amanda Nunes in 2018.
This fight has significant commercial implications for the UFC and the broader MMA economy. A high-profile matchup featuring a returning legend and a major free-agent signing is designed to drive pay-per-view sales, ticket revenue, and sponsorship deals, potentially making it one of the highest-grossing women's fights in history. The outcome will directly influence the valuation of future contracts for elite female fighters and set a precedent for cross-promotional star power. Beyond economics, the fight carries substantial cultural weight for women's sports. A compelling, technically skilled main event between two athletes at their peak promotes the legitimacy and marketability of women's MMA, inspiring a new generation of athletes and fans. The winner will likely become the face of the resurgent bantamweight division, affecting media coverage, fan engagement, and the direction of the weight class for years. For prediction markets, it serves as a high-volume test case for forecasting outcomes in combat sports where athlete age, career layoffs, and promotional transitions are major variables.
As of late 2025, both fighters are deep into their training camps for the January 2026 event. Amanda Nunes has been training at her home gym, Lioness Studio, in Florida, with her team releasing periodic training footage emphasizing her striking power. Kayla Harrison is preparing at the famed American Top Team, focusing on integrating her judo with MMA-specific techniques for a five-round fight. The UFC has begun its official promotional campaign, releasing the first trailer for UFC 324 in November 2025. Official betting odds opened with Harrison as a slight favorite, but the line has tightened as more information about Nunes's conditioning becomes public. The fight is confirmed as the co-main event for the pay-per-view, directly beneath the lightweight main event between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
The event is scheduled to be held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The UFC has not announced any venue change, and T-Mobile Arena is the company's preferred venue for major pay-per-view events in the United States.
According to the prediction market rules, if the fight is canceled or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, the market will resolve as '50-50'. This means all contracts will be settled at a price of $0.50 each.
UFC 324 will be available globally via pay-per-view through ESPN+ in the United States and through UFC Fight Pass or local broadcast partners internationally. The preliminary card will air on ESPN or ESPN+.
No, Kayla Harrison has competed primarily at 155 pounds (lightweight) in the PFL. This fight at 135 pounds requires a significant weight cut, which is a major point of discussion and analysis leading up to the bout.
As of late 2025, following Nunes's retirement and subsequent return, the bantamweight title landscape is in flux. The UFC has indicated the winner of Nunes vs. Harrison will likely fight for the vacant or undisputed championship next.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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