NY-21 House Election Winner
PM $112.1K
1
2
NY-21 House Election Winner
PM $112.1K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Anthony Constantino (R) at 65%.
Polymarket
- Anthony Constantino (R)65%
- Blake Gendebien (D)33.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $112.1K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which party will win the NY-21 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The source excerpt does not say when the seat's result will be called, so the listed end time should not be read as a result date.
The two markets in the snapshot ask about the same seat from different sides. One asks whether the Republican Party wins the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party wins it [1]. Party is determined by a candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the rules say resolution will rely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 16:13 UTC on October 15, 2026, and the evidence was retrieved at 19:21 UTC the same day [1]. The prices describe that moment only and are not current quotes.
The Republican Yes contract was listed at 0.745 and the Democratic Yes contract at 0.24 [1]. Read as snapshot prices, these figures place the Republican outcome well above the Democratic outcome in this sample. The two Yes prices sum to 0.985, not 1.00, so the contracts do not map perfectly onto each other. That gap does not, by itself, indicate an opportunity, because the snapshot is not an executable quote and does not account for fees, depth, or timing.
Both markets list the same end time, 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and both are marked active [1]. The sample includes two of two saved markets from this one Polymarket event, and the provider marks it as not partial [1]. The evidence contains no other platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices stand where they do, and it contains no information on recent news, trader counts, or how liquid either market is. The provider notes that saved markets do not establish a complete list of real-world outcomes [1]. The evidence also does not establish whether a result will be called by the listed end time. Readers should check the current contract page and the resolution sources before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: NY-21 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is tied to the NY-21 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. It asks which party will hold the seat after the 2026 midterm elections. The contract resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the seat, not according to a named individual. Under its rules, a candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1]. The contract states that resolution will follow a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, resolution will rely on the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections, and voters will elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts [2]. The listed end time for the market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, which is a provider setting in the contract and does not indicate when the race will be called [1]. The market is organized as two related contracts within the same event. One asks whether the Republican Party will win the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party will win it. In the saved snapshot, the Republican Yes contract was priced at 0.745 and the Democratic Yes contract at 0.24 [1]. These figures were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z. They are snapshots from that time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as the current state of the market. Volume and the number of traders are separate from price and are not reported here. Because the contract rules define the outcome by party and by the resolution process, a reader should check the full rules on the provider page before drawing conclusions about how a result would be settled. Differences between the two contract prices reflect the snapshot only and do not by themselves identify any trading opportunity.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the NY-21 House seat after the 2026 midterm elections. Its design focuses on party control of one district rather than on a specific candidate, so the same contract structure applies whoever wins the seat [1]. The House election is part of the broader 2026 midterms, in which all 435 House districts are being contested [2]. Because the rules specify how party affiliation is determined, including the caucus rule for candidates without a ballot-listed party, the contract depends on the exact resolution wording rather than on general assumptions about the district [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract depends on?
The 2026 House elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections [2].
How is the winning party determined?
The contract resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 seat. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1].
What happens if a candidate has no ballot-listed party affiliation?
The contract assigns that candidate to the Democratic or Republican party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time the House elections are conclusively called [1].
What source is used if reporting is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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