ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Name: ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$109.14K

Events

Markets

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ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $109.14K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $109.14K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$109.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An ann

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (74 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An ann

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $109.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $109.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

73d 12h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

13¢

Polymarket

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ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

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ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)