This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature at Wellington International Airport on February 28, 2026. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at the official weather station for that specific date, with data sourced from Wunderground's historical records. Wellington, New Zealand's capital, experiences a temperate maritime climate characterized by moderate temperatures, frequent winds, and changeable weather patterns. The specific date, February 28, falls late in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a period when Wellington can experience its warmest conditions, though these are often tempered by the Cook Strait winds. Interest in this market stems from both meteorological curiosity and the practical implications of weather forecasting. Participants may analyze long-term climate trends, seasonal forecasts from agencies like NIWA, and historical temperature distributions for late February to inform their predictions. The outcome offers a precise, measurable data point that reflects both typical summer weather and potential anomalies influenced by broader climate patterns or specific weather systems like high-pressure zones or northerly airflows.

Historical Context

Wellington's climate records provide essential context for temperature predictions. The city's official temperature records have been kept since 1862, originally from the Wellington Botanical Garden and later from Kelburn and the airport. The Wellington International Airport station became a primary climate site in the latter half of the 20th century. Historical data shows that February is typically Wellington's warmest month, with an average daily maximum temperature of 20.2°C (68.4°F) based on the 1991-2020 climate normal period. The absolute maximum temperature ever recorded in Wellington was 31.1°C (88.0°F) on February 6, 1934, at the now-closed Thorndon site. For the specific date of February 28, historical extremes provide a range of possible outcomes. In recent decades, the highest temperature recorded on February 28 at the airport was 26.5°C (79.7°F) in 2019. The lowest maximum temperature recorded on this date was 14.8°C (58.6°F) in 1993. These historical extremes establish the outer bounds for reasonable predictions, while the distribution of past temperatures informs probability estimates. Climate change has introduced a long-term warming trend. NIWA's data indicates New Zealand's annual average temperature increased by 1.26°C between 1909 and 2022. This trend suggests that temperature records for any given summer date are more likely to fall in the warmer part of the historical distribution in the 2020s compared to earlier decades.

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