GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Argentina presidential election winner?

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Argentina presidential election winner?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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7 markets tracked

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Kalshi	57%
Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)	Kalshi	44%
Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)	Kalshi	3%
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Horacio Rodríguez Larreta)	Kalshi	2%
Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Eduardo de Pedro)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

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About This Event

In 2027 If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is X then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Argentina presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is X then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Mauricio Macri, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Horacio Rodríguez Larreta)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Eduardo de Pedro)
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Argentina presidential election winner?

Volume$0.00

Markets7

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KALSHI

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.5¢No 42.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Javier Milei, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and

KALSHI

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Axel Kicillof, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close an

KALSHI

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Mauricio Macri, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close a

KALSHI

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Sergio Massa, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and

KALSHI

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

If the winner of the next Argentine presidential election is Patricia Bullrich, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will clos

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Qb4wFO" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Argentina presidential election winner?"></iframe>

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Argentina presidential election winner?

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Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Argentina presidential election winner?

Markets (7)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Argentina presidential election winner?

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

Will Axel Kicillof win the next Argentine presidential election? (Axel Kicillof)

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

Will Mauricio Macri win the next Argentine presidential election? (Mauricio Macri)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)

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