Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 63% probability to Javier Milei winning Argentina's next presidential election in 2027. This price, trading on Kalshi, indicates the market views a Milei re-election as the most likely outcome, but with significant uncertainty. A 63% chance suggests a clear but fragile favorite status, implying traders see a substantial 37% probability that another candidate will prevail. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with only $4,000 in volume spread across five related markets, meaning current prices can be more volatile and less robust.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The primary factor supporting Milei's frontrunner status is the profound economic shock therapy implemented since his December 2023 inauguration. His administration's aggressive spending cuts, deregulation, and moves to dollarize the economy are priced in as a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Markets are betting that if his plan successfully tames Argentina's historic hyperinflation, currently over 200% annually, by 2027, voters will reward him with a second term despite severe short-term pain. Secondly, the fractured state of the opposition, particularly the traditional Peronist coalition, leaves no clear alternative candidate, consolidating anti-establishment sentiment behind Milei.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds will be highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators over the next two years. If inflation falls precipitously and economic growth returns by 2026, Milei's probability could surge toward 80% or higher. Conversely, if the austerity measures trigger a deep recession or social unrest without curbing inflation, his odds could quickly collapse below 50%. The 2025 midterm congressional elections will be a critical catalyst, serving as a de facto referendum on his policies and either solidifying his mandate or revealing fatal political weakness. The eventual emergence of a unified opposition candidate, potentially from the Peronist bloc or a moderate conservative, would also reshape the race.