$224.03
1
2
$224.03
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Prediction markets currently price incumbent Senator Jim Risch as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Idaho Republican Senate primary. On Polymarket, the contract "Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?" is trading at 83 cents, implying an 83% probability. This high confidence level suggests the market views his renomination as very likely, though not absolutely guaranteed given the thin liquidity. The remaining 17% probability is distributed across potential challengers or an "Other" outcome.
The primary factor is Risch's entrenched incumbency and Idaho's strong Republican lean. First elected to the Senate in 2008, Risch has consistently won reelection by wide margins, including his 2020 victory with over 60% of the vote. Idaho's political landscape heavily favors established Republican incumbents in primaries, making a successful challenge historically difficult. Furthermore, at 81 years old, speculation about potential retirement has been a recurring theme, but the current market pricing indicates a strong belief he will run again. The lack of any declared or high-profile challenger at this early stage further solidifies his frontrunner status.
The odds could shift significantly based on Senator Risch's formal announcement regarding his 2026 intentions. An official retirement announcement would immediately collapse his contract price to near zero and create volatility across other candidate markets. Conversely, a clear declaration to seek reelection would likely push his probability above 90%. The other major catalyst would be the entry of a credible, well-funded primary challenger, potentially from the party's more populist wing. However, given Idaho's political structure and Risch's seniority on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, such a challenge is currently considered a low-probability event. Key dates to watch are the candidate filing deadline in early 2026 and any major state party gatherings in 2025 where challengers might emerge.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner prediction market focuses on determining which candidate will secure the Republican nomination for the United States Senate seat from Idaho in the 2026 election cycle. This primary contest is a critical political event within Idaho, a state with a deeply conservative electorate where the Republican primary winner is virtually guaranteed victory in the general election. The market resolves based on the first official announcement from the Idaho Republican Party, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, making it a real-time gauge of political forecasting and insider sentiment. Interest in this market stems from its role as a leading indicator for national political trends, the future direction of the Republican Party, and the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. The outcome will signal whether Idaho's representation continues its current ideological path or shifts in response to internal party dynamics and emerging national issues. The seat is currently held by Senator Mike Crapo, who has not yet announced whether he will seek re-election, adding a layer of uncertainty that fuels speculation and market activity. Analysts and political observers are closely watching for early endorsements, fundraising figures, and polling data to assess the strength of potential contenders.
Idaho's political landscape has been dominated by the Republican Party for over half a century. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Frank Church's last victory in 1974. The Republican primary, therefore, functions as the de facto general election. Senator Mike Crapo first won his seat in 1998, succeeding Republican Dirk Kempthorne, and has since won re-election by massive margins, including with 66.1% of the vote in 2022. Historically, Idaho's Senate primaries have been low-drama affairs with incumbents facing minimal opposition. However, the political environment has shifted. The 2022 gubernatorial primary was a watershed moment, where incumbent Governor Brad Little narrowly defeated far-right challenger Janice McGeachin by just 20,000 votes, revealing deep fissures within the state GOP. This was followed by a contentious battle for control of the state party apparatus in 2023, ultimately won by the more hardline faction represented by Raúl Labrador. These events suggest the 2026 Senate primary could be the most competitive and ideologically charged in decades, especially if it is an open seat, setting a precedent for future intra-party battles.
The winner of this primary will likely become Idaho's next U.S. Senator, shaping federal policy on issues critical to the state, such as public lands management, agricultural subsidies, and national energy policy, for the next six years. The senator will also have a vote on Supreme Court confirmations, federal budget allocations, and national security matters, directly impacting Idaho's interests and the nation's direction. Beyond policy, the primary is a bellwether for the national Republican Party. A victory for a hardline, 'America First' candidate would signal the continued ascendancy of the party's populist wing and could influence similar races in other conservative states. Conversely, a win for a more traditional establishment figure would suggest a potential reassertion of the party's pre-Trump coalition. The campaign itself will consume significant financial resources and media attention within Idaho, influencing down-ballot races for the U.S. House and the state legislature. The outcome will also determine the seniority and committee power Idaho holds in the Senate, which is crucial for securing federal projects and influencing legislation.
As of late 2024, the field for the 2026 Idaho Republican Senate primary remains undeclared. The central question is whether incumbent Senator Mike Crapo, who will be 75 years old in 2026, will seek re-election. He has not made a formal announcement, leading to widespread speculation. Potential candidates like Congressman Russ Fulcher and Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke are reportedly gauging support and building fundraising networks but are awaiting Crapo's decision before making their own moves. The Idaho Republican Party, under Chairman Raúl Labrador, is focused on the 2024 presidential and congressional elections, but party insiders are already discussing scenarios for 2026. No major public polling has been conducted on the hypothetical primary matchup, leaving the market to operate on insider speculation, historical patterns, and analysis of factional strength within the state party.
The primary election date has not been officially set by the state of Idaho for the 2026 cycle. Based on recent precedent, it will likely be held in May 2026. The exact date will be determined by the Idaho Secretary of State and legislature in the preceding year.
No. Idaho has a closed primary system for presidential and state races. Only voters who are registered with the Republican Party by the state's registration deadline are eligible to vote in the Republican primary. Unaffiliated or independent voters cannot participate.
Political analysts most frequently mention U.S. Representative Russ Fulcher and Lieutenant Governor Scott Bedke as the leading potential candidates in an open-seat scenario. Fulcher has a strong base with the party's conservative activists, while Bedke draws support from the business community and establishment figures.
The Idaho Republican Party typically announces results through a combination of a press release, statements on its official website and social media channels, and communications to major news outlets. County clerks officially certify the vote totals, which the state party then aggregates and announces.
The filing deadline has not been announced. For the 2022 election cycle, the deadline for federal candidates to file declaration of candidacy forms with the Idaho Secretary of State was in March. A similar timeline is expected for 2026, approximately 2-3 months before the primary election.
No. In modern history, no incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Idaho has lost a primary election. The last serious primary challenge to a sitting senator was in 2008, when Senator Larry Craig won renomination with over 85% of the vote against minor opposition.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 83% |
| Poly | 13% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Qb8Yes" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner"></iframe>