Current Market Outlook

The prediction market for Seattle's highest temperature on February 12 is effectively resolved. The leading contract, "Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 12?" trades at 100% with $72,000 in total volume spread across seven temperature range markets. This means the market has already determined the outcome with complete certainty.

A 100% probability in prediction markets typically means the event has already occurred and been verified. The resolution source is Wunderground's historical data for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport station. With the date being February 12, 2026, and the market trading at 100%, the temperature reading has been finalized and the contract is awaiting payout.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The market settled on 46-47°F because that's what actually happened. Seattle's February 12 temperatures typically range from the mid-30s to low-50s, with the historical average high around 48°F. A reading of 46-47°F sits squarely in the expected range for a Pacific Northwest winter day, which often features overcast skies and occasional rain.

The thin liquidity across seven contracts suggests this was a niche market with limited speculative interest. Unlike Super Bowl or election markets that attract millions, localized weather markets draw mostly local participants or weather enthusiasts.

What Could Change These Odds

Nothing. The market is resolved. The temperature for February 12, 2026 has already been recorded and verified against Wunderground's data. The only remaining step is for the market oracle to confirm the reading and trigger payouts to winning positions.

For anyone looking at this market now, there is no trading opportunity. The 100% price reflects a settled outcome, not a probabilistic forecast. If you held the winning contract, you're waiting for settlement. If you didn't, the market is closed to new speculation.