What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give a 100% probability that New York City's high temperature on February 20 will be 31°F or below. In practical terms, traders are essentially certain the day will be very cold, with no chance of a warmer spike. This is an unusually strong consensus for a weather market, indicating near-unanimity among participants.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Two main factors explain this extreme forecast. First, the date is in the heart of winter. New York's average high temperature in late February is typically in the low 40s, but brief, intense cold snaps are common. The market is likely pricing in specific short-term weather model data available to traders, which probably show a high-confidence forecast for Arctic air to descend on the Northeast around that date.

Second, the market structure itself reinforces certainty. With the event just days away, reliable short-range weather models are in agreement. Traders are not speculating on a weeks-out possibility, they are reacting to a high-probability forecast that has solidified. Historical weather patterns also support this, as February is the city's second-coldest month, and temperatures at or below freezing are far from unusual.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The key date is the event day itself, February 20. The final, official high temperature will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport. All relevant data is already in motion, so the only remaining variable is the actual weather observation. No upcoming announcements or decisions will change the outcome, only the measurement.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

For very short-term weather events, prediction markets tend to be quite accurate because they aggregate real-time data from weather models and knowledgeable traders. When markets show 100% odds this close to the event, it often means the meteorological outcome is virtually locked in. The main limitation here is not the market's judgment, but the remote possibility of an instrument error or reporting anomaly in the official temperature reading. For all practical purposes, however, this forecast is as reliable as a weather prediction can be.