Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

Total Volume

$401.26

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

Vol

$401.26

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $401.26

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $401.26

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?	Kalshi	95%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?	Kalshi	89%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?	Kalshi	77%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?	Kalshi	62%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?	Kalshi	41%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.5%?	Kalshi	24%
Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 60.0%?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$401.26

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 2026 If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payments currency - Excluding payments within Eurozone” table published by Swift in its Global Currency Tracker. The statistic is based on the value of live and delivered MT 103, MT 202, and equivalent ISO 20022 pa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 2026

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payments currency - Excluding payments within Eurozone” table published by Swift in its Global Currency Tracker. The statistic is based on the value of live and delivered MT 103, MT 202, and equivalent ISO 20022 pa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 60.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $401
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 60.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $401
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 28, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

Volume$401.26

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 57.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment

KALSHI

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 57.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment

KALSHI

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 58.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment

KALSHI

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 58.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment

KALSHI

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

If the U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone, for December 2026 is above 59.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the percentage share attributed to USD for December 2026 in the “International payment

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57¢

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USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

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Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

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Events (1)

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

Markets (7)

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

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Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

USD share of Swift international payments in December 2026

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 57.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 58.5%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

Will U.S. dollar’s share of international payments by value on Swift, excluding payments within the Eurozone for December 2026 be above 59.0%?

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