Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Name: Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place
End: 2026-10-28T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.06K

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Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place

Vol

$1.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $1.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Yisrael Beiteinu win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	37%
Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	28%
Will Joint List win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	19%
Will Likud win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	12%
Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	12%
Will Shas win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	12%
Will Yashar win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	11%
Will Ra'am win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	11%
Will RZP-Zehut win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	11%
Will Amcha Yisrael win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	8%
Will Otzma Yehudit win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	7%
Will Blue and White win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	7%
Will United Torah Judaism win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	5%
Will The Reservists and the Economic Party win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	5%
Will Noam win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$1.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or co

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israeli Legislative Election: 4th Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 28, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or co

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

The named parties and coalitions will be primarily "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Likud win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Shas win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Yashar win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Otzma Yehudit win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Blue and White win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Yisrael Beiteinu win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will United Torah Judaism win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will RZP-Zehut win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Joint List win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ra'am win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Amcha Yisrael win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $251
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Noam win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $173
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will The Reservists and the Economic Party win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 28, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics