$2.57K
1
5
$2.57K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 20, 2029 If President Trump has exactly X Attorneys General, then the market resolves to Yes. This count will begin with the first confirmed person to hold that position during Trump's presidency, who will count as the first. Persons operating as an Acting Cabinet member will count towards this number, provided they take office after the first person is confirmed. If the role is filled by a person who has already held the office in some form during Trump's term, that will not count a
Prediction markets currently assign the highest probability to President Trump having only one Attorney General during his potential term, with the "1 Attorney General" contract trading at 34% on Kalshi. This suggests the market views a single, stable tenure as the most likely outcome, but far from a certainty. The combined probability for scenarios involving multiple Attorneys General (markets for 2, 3, 4, or 5+) totals 66%, indicating a stronger collective expectation for turnover than for stability. Trading volume is thin at approximately $3,000 spread across five outcome markets, signaling low liquidity and high sensitivity to new information.
The pricing reflects two primary historical and political factors. First, recent presidential terms have seen significant turnover in the role. President Trump's first term had two confirmed Attorneys General (Jeff Sessions, William Barr), and an acting AG (Matthew Whitaker). President Biden has also had two Attorneys General to date (Merrick Garland, now-designate Lisa Monaco). This pattern normalizes the expectation of change. Second, the Attorney General role is uniquely politically sensitive, often facing pressure over high-profile investigations and legal policy. This makes the position susceptible to resignation or replacement if conflicts arise with the White House, a historical precedent that markets are factoring into the higher combined odds for multiple occupants.
The single greatest catalyst for shifting these probabilities will be the confirmation and early tenure of the first Trump-appointed Attorney General. A widely respected, politically insulated nominee who secures easy confirmation could solidify the "1 AG" scenario and increase those odds. Conversely, a contentious confirmation battle or the immediate emergence of a major legal controversy, such as a dispute over the oversight of a sensitive investigation, would rapidly increase the probability markets for 2 or more Attorneys General. The odds for higher turnover (3+) would likely surge in response to any early resignation or dismissal, echoing the political turbulence of Trump's first term.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the potential number of Attorneys General who will serve during a hypothetical second term of Donald Trump's presidency, from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029. The Attorney General is the head of the U.S. Department of Justice and the chief law enforcement officer of the federal government. The market resolves based on the count of individuals who hold the office, including those serving in an acting capacity after the first confirmed appointee, but excluding individuals who return to the role after having previously served during the term. This topic has gained significant attention due to the historically high turnover in Trump's first administration and his stated intentions to reshape the Department of Justice. Observers are closely watching because the stability and leadership of the Justice Department are central to numerous legal and political issues, including potential investigations and the enforcement of federal law. The question reflects broader concerns about governance style, personnel management, and the potential for conflict between presidential priorities and institutional norms within a key cabinet agency.
The turnover rate for U.S. Attorney General has varied significantly across presidencies, providing essential context for this prediction. Historically, most modern presidents have had one or two Attorneys General serve throughout their four-year terms. For example, Barack Obama had two (Eric Holder and Loretta Lynch), and George W. Bush had two (John Ashcroft and Alberto Gonzales). The notable exception in recent decades was the presidency of Bill Clinton, who had three Attorneys General (Janet Reno, briefly followed by two acting AGs at the very end of his term). Donald Trump's first term set a modern record for confirmed Attorneys General with three: Jeff Sessions (confirmed February 2017, resigned November 2018), William Barr (confirmed February 2019, resigned December 2020), and Jeffrey Rosen (confirmed December 2020, served through January 2021). This high turnover was driven by unique circumstances, including the Russia investigation and Trump's public pressure on the Justice Department. The precedent suggests that a second Trump term could experience similar or greater instability, depending on the legal and political landscape. The historical norm of stability contrasts sharply with Trump's first-term experience, making the prediction inherently a question of whether that pattern was anomalous or indicative of a governing style.
The number of Attorneys General in a presidential term is a key indicator of administrative stability and the health of the rule of law. Frequent turnover at the top of the Justice Department can disrupt long-term investigations, create policy inconsistency, and undermine morale among career staff. It signals potential conflict between a president's personal or political interests and the department's traditional independence. For markets and governance observers, a high count suggests a presidency marked by internal turmoil and a confrontational approach to federal law enforcement agencies. This has direct consequences for federal litigation, the enforcement of civil rights and antitrust laws, and the handling of sensitive national security matters. A revolving door of leadership creates uncertainty for businesses, state governments, and international partners who rely on consistent application of U.S. law.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November presidential election. He has not publicly named a specific individual as his intended Attorney General should he win. However, he and his allies have consistently criticized the current Justice Department and the FBI, promising a major overhaul. Project 2025, a detailed presidential transition plan led by the Heritage Foundation, includes proposals to increase political control over the DOJ, which could create conditions for conflict with an Attorney General perceived as insufficiently loyal. The political and legal environment, including ongoing cases involving Trump, sets the stage for immediate and intense pressure on whomever he might appoint.
Yes, according to the market rules, persons operating as an Acting Attorney General will count towards the total number, provided they take office after the first person is confirmed. This is a crucial distinction, as acting officials are commonly used.
The market rules specify that if the role is filled by a person who has already held the office in some form during Trump's term, that return does not count as a new, additional Attorney General for the market total.
Jeffrey Rosen served as the acting Attorney General from December 2020 until the end of Trump's term on January 20, 2021. He was preceded by William Barr, who resigned in December 2020.
As of 2024, President Joe Biden has had one confirmed Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who has served throughout Biden's first term, illustrating a return to the historical norm of stability.
Key factors include conflicts over investigations related to Trump or his allies, disagreements on immigration or election fraud enforcement, simple resignation, or the use of acting appointments to bypass Senate confirmation, a tactic employed in his first term.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
How many Attorneys General will Trump have? (1) | Kalshi | 34% |
How many Attorneys General will Trump have? (3) | Kalshi | 22% |
How many Attorneys General will Trump have? (2) | Kalshi | 20% |
How many Attorneys General will Trump have? (5) | Kalshi | 10% |
How many Attorneys General will Trump have? (4) | Kalshi | 10% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Qiqw8X" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many Attorneys General will Trump have?"></iframe>