$173.75K
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$173.75K
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7
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This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Maria Machado between market creation and January 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Any handshake recorded between market creation and that date (ET) will qualify. If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market w
Prediction markets currently assign a 79% probability that Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado will not share a filmed handshake before the resolution deadline of January 16, 2026. This high probability indicates the market views a non-handshake as the overwhelming consensus outcome. The leading contract, "Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?", is trading at 79¢, while the various duration-based contracts for an actual handshake (e.g., 0-5 seconds, 6-10 seconds) collectively hold very low probabilities. The market's structure, with a specific "No Handshake" outcome, reflects the significant possibility that the event may not occur at all.
Two primary factors are driving the high odds against a handshake. First, the political context makes a meeting logistically and diplomatically complex. Maria Corina Machado is the banned opposition leader in Venezuela, while Donald Trump is a former and potentially future U.S. president. A public meeting and handshake between them would constitute a major geopolitical signal against the Maduro regime, an action current U.S. policy may seek to calibrate carefully. Second, Trump's known preference for controlling visual optics, especially with foreign political figures, suggests any interaction would be highly staged if it occurs at all. The market is effectively pricing in the high likelihood that no qualifying meeting will be publicly recorded before the deadline.
The odds could shift dramatically with the announcement of a confirmed meeting. A scheduled event where both parties are confirmed attendees would immediately inject volatility, likely cratering the "No Handshake" contract and boosting prices for duration-based outcomes. Conversely, the passing of the January 16, 2026 deadline without any known contact would solidify the current market view. An unexpected, brief encounter at an international forum, like a UN gathering or regional summit before the deadline, represents the most plausible scenario for a rapid repricing, though the market currently judges this as a low-probability tail risk.
This market is trading exclusively on Polymarket, with approximately $77,000 in total volume. The liquidity is concentrated in the "No Handshake" outcome, indicating strong trader conviction. The lack of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi prevents a direct cross-platform analysis, but the thin liquidity in the duration-based contracts on Polymarket suggests that any new, credible information about a potential meeting would cause significant price dislocation and volatility within this single market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on a specific political gesture: the duration of a handshake between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. The market will resolve based on the length of the longest filmed handshake between the two individuals occurring before January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no handshake is captured on video during a meeting by that deadline, the market resolves to 'No Handshake'. This topic exists at the intersection of international diplomacy, political symbolism, and media analysis, transforming a routine protocol into a measurable political event. The interest stems from the high-stakes nature of U.S.-Venezuela relations and the personal political styles of both figures, where seemingly minor interactions are often scrutinized for deeper meaning. Recent developments include Machado's decisive victory in the Venezuelan opposition's 2023 primary election and her subsequent political disqualification by the Maduro government, which has increased international attention on her as a key figure. Observers are interested because a meeting and handshake would signal a significant level of U.S. support for Machado's political movement, while the duration of the handshake could be interpreted as a barometer of the strength of that alliance, following a tradition of analyzing leader interactions for diplomatic cues.
The political handshake as a subject of analysis has deep roots in diplomatic protocol and media coverage. A notable modern precedent was the famously long and contentious handshake between President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017, which lasted approximately 25 seconds and was widely dissected in global media. This event established a framework for interpreting prolonged handshakes as displays of dominance or testing. In the specific context of U.S.-Venezuela relations, handshakes have carried immense symbolic weight. For instance, the 2015 handshake between President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro at the Summit of the Americas was historic, signaling a diplomatic thaw. Conversely, the lack of a handshake can be equally telling. During the Trump administration, U.S. engagement with Venezuela was defined by the 2019 recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president and a policy of maximum economic pressure. Trump never met with Guaidó in the Oval Office, though Guaidó did attend the 2020 State of the Union address. This history sets the stage for a potential Trump-Machado handshake, which would be a tangible, visual manifestation of support surpassing previous engagements with Venezuelan opposition figures.
The significance of this specific interaction extends beyond a simple greeting. For the Venezuelan opposition and the Maduro government, a sustained handshake with a leading U.S. presidential candidate would be a powerful media event, potentially influencing domestic political perceptions and the morale of Machado's supporters. It could be interpreted as a firm commitment to her political cause, affecting the calculations of other nations regarding their own levels of support. For U.S. politics, it represents a tangible foreign policy contrast between presidential candidates. A meeting would signal a likely return to the Trump-era pressure campaign against Maduro, with potential consequences for global oil markets, regional stability, and the migratory crisis. The duration of the handshake, while seemingly trivial, would generate immediate media narratives and symbolic analysis, shaping public understanding of the relationship's perceived strength. The event could also influence the fragile negotiation process between the Maduro government and the opposition, potentially hardening positions on all sides.
As of mid-2024, no public meeting between Donald Trump and María Corina Machado has been announced or confirmed. Machado remains politically disqualified by the Maduro government but continues to campaign domestically and seek international support. The Biden administration has maintained its policy of conditional sanctions relief based on Maduro's adherence to electoral agreements. Donald Trump is actively campaigning as the Republican presidential nominee. The practical logistics of a meeting are uncertain, depending on campaign schedules, security considerations, and the geopolitical timing both parties would deem most advantageous.
A handshake would be a powerful visual symbol of U.S. support for Machado's opposition movement against the Maduro government. It would signal a likely return to a maximum pressure sanctions policy and could influence other nations and the morale of Venezuelan opposition supporters.
There is no publicly documented record of a prior in-person meeting between Donald Trump and María Corina Machado. During his presidency, Trump's primary Venezuelan opposition contact was Juan Guaidó, whom he recognized as interim president in 2019.
According to the market's resolution rules, only a handshake captured on video qualifies for measurement. A photographed handshake without video evidence would not provide a verifiable duration and would not count, potentially leading the market to resolve to 'No Handshake' if no video exists.
The duration is measured from the moment their hands make clear contact in a handshake gesture to the moment they clearly separate. The market resolves based on the longest such continuous handshake captured on video from a single meeting within the qualifying period.
Yes, any filmed handshake between the two individuals within the timeframe qualifies, regardless of setting. This includes formal meetings, campaign rallies, or chance encounters, provided the interaction is clearly identifiable and the handshake is captured on video.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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