Name: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $1.23M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.23M

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	27%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	26%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	21%
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	6%
Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

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27%

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$1.23M

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About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (260 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program ("

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.23M
* **Total Liquidity:** $26.4K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 46.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $199.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $67.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $123.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $403.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $176.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $202.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $57.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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