Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Name: How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
End: 2027-01-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.48M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Vol

$1.48M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.48M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.48M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	56%
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	21%
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	16%
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

56%

Top Probability

$1.48M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 8, 2027 (88 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program ("

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $973.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 320.95)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $420.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $189.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $293.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $69.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate