Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PM $682.7K
1
20
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PM $682.7K
1
20
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Japan at 18%.
Polymarket
- Japan18%
- Germany14%
- Saudi Arabia12.5%
- South Korea11%
- Portugal10.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $682.7K
Reported volume · provider units
20
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract resolves "Yes" if U.S. President Donald Trump physically enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Airspace alone does not count [1]. The excerpt identifies official U.S. government information, official statements from Trump or his verified accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting as resolution sources [1]. Each country has its own market, so the figures below are separate contracts on separate countries, not competing outcomes in one pool.
Listed end times differ across the markets shown. Some are recorded as 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z, while others are recorded as 2027-01-02T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The event-level rule states a listed end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. A reader should check each market's own close time rather than assume they match.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T03:03:26.367Z [1]. These are the times of this record, not a live feed, and the prices below describe that snapshot only.
Within this sample, the highest quoted Yes price is Japan at 0.20, followed by Germany at 0.16 and Portugal at 0.1135 [1]. Yes prices for Israel, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Venezuela, Russia, Syria, North Korea, and India range from 0.055 to 0.095 in the included set [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They are not a measure of how many traders hold a view, and the volume figures in the source do not indicate liquidity.
The sample is partial. Of 20 markets in the saved Polymarket event, 12 are included [1]. The eight excluded markets have no prices shown in this record, so this comparison cannot say how they would rank. The ordering is by Yes price, then volume, within this single event. Nothing here should be read as a ranking across other events or providers.
The differences between countries should be read as differences between these contracts only. A gap in quoted price does not by itself show an arbitrage opportunity, and the excerpt gives no reasons for why any price is at its level.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any reporting on planned or scheduled travel, so it cannot say whether any visit is expected. It also does not show trading history, price movement over time, or the cause of any price. Whether a visit will occur, and how the resolution sources will treat it, remains outside the supplied record.
References
- Polymarket: Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is a Polymarket event titled "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?" The event contains separate yes or no markets for individual countries. According to the contract rules, if U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, that country's market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No [1]. The rules define a visit as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Passing through airspace without entering that territory does not count toward a Yes resolution [1]. The rules name the primary resolution source as official information from the government of the United States, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting [1]. The event's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the 11:59 PM ET cutoff in the rules [1]. Individual markets in the saved sample show different end dates, including 2026-12-31T23:59:00Z and 2027-01-02T04:59:00Z [1]. The rules do not explain these differences, so readers should check each market's own end time before relying on a specific date. The sample lists Yes and No prices for each country. Each price is a snapshot taken from the provider at the observation time and reflects the most recent trade or quote the provider reported, not an executable quote or a verified probability. Volume figures in this kind of data indicate trading activity, not liquidity or the number of participants. Differences between markets reflect different contracts, so they should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia article on a 2026 state visit describes a trip by Trump to China from 13 to 15 May 2026. It calls this his second state visit to China and the first to occur during his second presidency, noting that his first state visit there took place in November 2017 [2]. The same article states that the trip was the first by a U.S. president since Trump's 2017 visit [2]. This is encyclopedia background on a past event. It does not confirm any other trip, and a Wikipedia retrieval does not by itself verify current developments.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Trump physically enters the territory of a specific country during calendar year 2026. Because each country is its own contract, the outcomes are independent of one another in the rules [1]. The rules also specify that airspace crossings do not count, so a Yes resolution depends on physical presence on land or within maritime territory [1]. Markets of this kind track official travel, which the rules tie to government information, Trump's own statements or verified accounts, and credible reporting [1]. The 2026 China trip described in the Wikipedia article illustrates the type of event that would count for a China contract if one were listed, though the saved sample in this article does not include a China market [2][1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does flying over a country count as a visit?
No. The rules define a visit as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country, and state that entering the country's airspace has no bearing on a positive resolution [1].
What sources decide how a market resolves?
The primary resolution source is official information from the government of the United States, along with official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts. A consensus of credible reporting is also used [1].
When does the 2026 visit window close?
The rules set the window as January 1 to December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the event's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. Some individual markets in the sample list different end times, so each market's end date should be checked [1].
Does a Yes price mean the event has a given chance of happening?
Not necessarily. The prices shown are snapshots from the provider at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be treated as confirmed odds.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
