Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

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$28.00

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How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

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$28.00

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $28.00

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9 markets tracked

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	91%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	86%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	73%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 57 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	48%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 60 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	35%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 63 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 66 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

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95%

Top Probability

$28.00

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About This Event

As of Nov 4, 2026 If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the page is unavailable at that time, the sum of the voted_all values in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** As of Nov 4, 2026

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the page is unavailable at that time, the sum of the voted_all values in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 66 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $28
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 66 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 63 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 60 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 57 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

Volume$28.00

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele

KALSHI

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele

KALSHI

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele

KALSHI

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele

KALSHI

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the "Total early votes" figure in the National Statistics section of the UF Ele

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/QpZxp_" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?"></iframe>

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How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

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Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Events (1)

How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

Markets (9)

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many votes will be cast early in the Midterms?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 42 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 48 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 51 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the national total of early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 54 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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