Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

What will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Name: What will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11)
End: 2026-10-11T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.56K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Vol

$1.56K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.56K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.56K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?	Poly	44%
Will Elon post "Tweak" on X this week?	Poly	42%
Will Elon post "Deport" or "Deported" on X this week?	Poly	42%
Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?	Poly	41%
Will Elon post "Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week?	Poly	35%
Will Elon post "Border" on X this week?	Poly	34%
Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?	Poly	31%
Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week?	Poly	26%
Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week?	Poly	25%
Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?	Poly	4%
Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$1.56K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution on

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11)
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 11, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution on

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Y"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $658
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Elon post "Mexico" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Elon post "Border" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Elon post "Trump" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $238
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Elon post "Sam" or "Altman" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 25.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Elon post "Tweak" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $67
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Elon post "Deport" or "Deported" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Elon post "Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $49
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Elon post "Texas" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $64
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Elon post "Bitcoin," "Crypto," or "Cryptocurrency" on X this week?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $251
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech