This prediction market, titled 'Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy,' centers on the future actions and financial status of MicroStrategy Incorporated, a publicly-traded business intelligence company that has become a major corporate holder of Bitcoin. The market will resolve to 'No' if, between its creation and March 31, 2026, MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin, announces holding 750,000 or more Bitcoin, declares bankruptcy, or is added to the S&P 500 index. Otherwise, it resolves to 'Yes.' The core proposition is a bet on the stability and continuity of MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy, which has fundamentally reshaped its corporate identity and financial risk profile. People are interested because MicroStrategy, under CEO Michael Saylor, has become a bellwether for corporate Bitcoin adoption and a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin's price. Its actions are closely watched by both cryptocurrency enthusiasts and traditional investors, as a major sale or financial distress could signal a shift in institutional sentiment. The market effectively allows participants to wager on whether the company's high-conviction, debt-financed Bitcoin strategy will remain intact through early 2026 without triggering any of the specified disruptive events.

Historical Context

MicroStrategy's transformation began on August 11, 2020, when it announced an initial $250 million investment in Bitcoin, citing macroeconomic conditions and a search for a superior store of value. This was a landmark moment, marking the first major public company to adopt Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset. The strategy escalated rapidly. The company conducted multiple rounds of debt and equity financing specifically to acquire more Bitcoin, including a $650 million convertible note offering in December 2020 and a $1.05 billion offering in June 2021. This aggressive, leveraged accumulation continued through Bitcoin's bull and bear markets, distinguishing MicroStrategy from other corporate holders like Tesla, which has sold portions of its holdings. By early 2024, MicroStrategy held over 190,000 BTC, making it the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder. This historical arc of consistent accumulation, financed through capital markets, sets the precedent that any deviation, such as a sale, would represent a significant strategic reversal. The company has never sold Bitcoin, reinforcing the 'Nothing Ever Happens' thesis of unwavering commitment.

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