Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

Total Volume

$812.00

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How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

Vol

$812.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $812.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $812.00

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9 markets tracked

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	31%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	28%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.5 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	20%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.7 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

Top Probability

$812.00

Volume

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About This Event

As of Nov 4, 2026 If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the page is unavailable at that time, the request_all value for Pennsylvania in the UF Elect

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** As of Nov 4, 2026

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least X million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. If the page is unavailable at that time, the request_all value for Pennsylvania in the UF Elect

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.7 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania p"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $812
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.7 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.6 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.5 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $280
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.45 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 2, 2027): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
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**Constraints:**
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- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

Volume$812.00

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania p

KALSHI

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania

KALSHI

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.5¢No 36.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania p

KALSHI

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania

KALSHI

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 28.0¢No 72.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

If the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election is at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the headline "Mail ballots requested" figure at the top of the Pennsylvania p

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How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

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Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Events (1)

How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

Markets (9)

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.2 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.3 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.35 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.4 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?

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