$1.30K
1
11
$1.30K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market
Prediction markets are currently assigning a low probability to Solana (SOL) trading between $140 and $150 on January 21, 2026. The leading contract on Polymarket for this specific price bracket is trading at approximately 37¢, implying just a 37% chance. This pricing suggests traders view a finish within this range as possible, but significantly less likely than an outcome outside of it. With only about $1,000 in total volume across all related price brackets, the market is thinly traded, indicating lower confidence in these early odds.
The primary factor suppressing the probability is Solana's current market position and volatility. As of this analysis, SOL trades significantly below the $140 threshold. For the price to appreciate into that bracket within a week, it would require a substantial bullish catalyst. Secondly, the broader cryptocurrency market remains in a cautious state, with traders weighing macroeconomic pressures against potential positive triggers. Historical patterns show that SOL often exhibits high beta to major moves in Bitcoin, and without a clear market-wide rally, a sustained 7-day surge into this specific band is seen as challenging. The thin liquidity itself is a key driver, as low volume can lead to odds that are more reflective of speculative positioning than deep market consensus.
These odds are highly sensitive to immediate price action and news. A sudden, strong upward move in SOL's price toward the $130s in the coming days would rapidly increase the probability for the $140-$150 bracket. Key catalysts include unexpected positive developments in the Solana ecosystem, such as a major application launch or partnership, or a sharp bullish turn in the overall crypto market led by Bitcoin. Conversely, any negative network news or a broader market downturn would likely push these odds toward 0%. Given the resolution is based on a single 1-minute Binance candle at noon ET on January 21, the odds will become extremely volatile in the final 24 hours, potentially swinging on short-term trading flows unrelated to fundamental value.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on forecasting the price of Solana (SOL), a major cryptocurrency, at a specific moment on January 21. The resolution is based on the precise 'Close' price of the SOL/USDT trading pair on the Binance exchange, measured by a 1-minute candle ending at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. This type of market exemplifies the growing intersection of cryptocurrency trading and prediction markets, where participants speculate on short-term price movements with defined parameters. Solana's price is a key indicator of sentiment within the blockchain ecosystem, particularly for high-performance smart contract platforms competing with Ethereum. Recent developments, including network upgrades, the expansion of its decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) ecosystems, and broader crypto market cycles, heavily influence its valuation. Interest in such a specific price point stems from traders, investors, and analysts looking to gauge immediate market reactions to scheduled events, macroeconomic data releases, or technical analysis patterns, making it a microcosm of real-time crypto market dynamics.
Solana was launched in March 2020 by Solana Labs, founded by Anatoly Yakovenko and Greg Fitzgerald. Its key innovation was Proof of History (PoH), a cryptographic clock designed to enable much higher transaction throughput than existing blockchains. SOL's price history has been marked by extreme volatility, characteristic of the crypto asset class. It rose from under $1 at launch to an all-time high of approximately $260 in November 2021, fueled by a booming NFT and DeFi ecosystem on its network. This period established Solana as a leading 'Ethereum killer.' However, the network faced significant challenges, including several full or partial outages in 2021 and 2022 that tested its reliability claims. The price subsequently crashed during the 2022 'crypto winter,' falling below $10, exacerbated by the collapse of the FTX exchange, which had been a major ecosystem supporter. The historical precedent shows SOL's price is sensitive to network performance, broader crypto market cycles, and the fortunes of key affiliated entities.
The price of Solana at a specific moment matters because it serves as a real-time referendum on the health and competitiveness of a major blockchain platform. It reflects collective investor judgment on Solana's technological resilience, developer activity, and adoption relative to rivals like Ethereum. For participants in the Solana ecosystem, including developers, NFT creators, and DeFi users, the token's price influences the economic viability of their projects and the purchasing power within the network. Beyond immediate traders, the outcome of such prediction markets contributes to price discovery and can signal short-term market sentiment, potentially influencing trading strategies and liquidity across the broader cryptocurrency sector. Downstream consequences include impacts on venture funding for Solana-based startups and the perceived success of the high-throughput blockchain model.
As of late 2023 and into 2024, Solana has experienced a significant recovery from its 2022 lows, with its price rallying strongly. This resurgence is attributed to renewed growth in its ecosystem, particularly in areas like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and meme coins, alongside a broader recovery in cryptocurrency markets. The network has also maintained a period of operational stability without major outages, helping to rebuild developer and investor confidence. Market attention is focused on its ability to sustain this growth, compete with Ethereum's layer-2 scaling solutions, and navigate ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty regarding interest rates.
Solana's price is determined by supply and demand on cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance. Key factors include overall crypto market sentiment, network adoption and usage, technological developments and reliability, competition from other blockchains, and broader macroeconomic conditions influencing risk assets.
Solana uses a unique consensus mechanism called Proof of History combined with Proof of Stake to prioritize extremely high transaction speed and low cost. Ethereum uses Proof of Stake and is focusing on a modular approach with layer-2 scaling. Solana aims for a single, fast global state, while Ethereum emphasizes decentralization and security through its base layer.
The market resolves based on the official 'Close' price for the SOL/USDT trading pair on the Binance exchange. Specifically, it uses the 1-minute candlestick that ends at 12:00 noon Eastern Time (ET) on the specified date, as displayed on Binance's trading interface.
Major risks include renewed network instability or outages, a severe broader cryptocurrency market downturn, successful scaling by competitors like Ethereum that reduces Solana's unique value proposition, regulatory crackdowns on crypto, and a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions that reduces investment in speculative assets.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 37% |
| Poly | 28% |
| Poly | 21% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
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