This prediction market asks whether the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will issue a new combined operating license (COL) for a nuclear power facility before the end of 2026. A COL is a single license that authorizes both the construction and conditional operation of a new nuclear power plant. The NRC is the independent federal agency responsible for licensing and regulating the civilian use of nuclear materials. The question specifically tracks the approval of a new license, not the construction completion or reactor startup of previously licensed projects. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if the NRC issues such a license for a new facility by December 31, 2026. Interest in this topic stems from the potential resurgence of nuclear power in the U.S. energy strategy. After a decades-long hiatus in new reactor construction, recent policy initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act's nuclear production tax credits and Department of Energy loan programs have renewed developer interest. The outcome signals regulatory momentum for next-generation nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs), and tests the NRC's reformed licensing processes intended to be more efficient and predictable.

Historical Context

The last time the NRC issued a combined operating license for a new nuclear power station was in 2012, for Southern Company's Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia and SCANA's V.C. Summer Units 2 and 3 in South Carolina. The V.C. Summer project was abandoned in 2017. Vogtle Unit 3 began commercial operation in July 2023, and Unit 4 followed in April 2024, marking the first new reactors built in the U.S. in over 30 years. Prior to the 2012 licenses, the regulatory landscape was different. The bulk of the U.S. reactor fleet received separate construction permits and operating licenses under rules established after the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. This two-step process often led to delays and financial risk. The NRC established the combined license process in 1989 as part of a rulemaking to streamline licensing, but it went unused for new applications for nearly two decades. The current push for new licenses is not for traditional large light-water reactors like Vogtle, but primarily for advanced designs, including small modular reactors and Generation IV technologies. These designs promise enhanced safety and lower capital costs, but they present new regulatory challenges the NRC must address.

Frequently Asked Questions