Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Name: Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$188.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

Vol

$188.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $188.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $188.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	55%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	14%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	12%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$188.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (138 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.

The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.

The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $128.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 35.95)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $11.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 28, 2027): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $61.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy