U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
PM $461.8K
1
1
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?
PM $461.8K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 51%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 202651%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $461.8K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the U.S. embassy in Damascus will reopen by December 31, 2026 [1]. The source states that the United States has suspended operations of the embassy since February 6, 2012, and that "the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria" as of market creation [1]. The contract resolves "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date [1]. An announcement counts even if an actual opening happens later, but "general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps" do not count [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This matches 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The December 31 date is a contract deadline, not an announced reopening date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z and retrieved at 2026-10-17T16:15:27.300Z [1]. It is a point-in-time record, not a live feed, and its prices are not executable quotes.
The Yes outcome was saved at 0.425 and the No outcome at 0.575 [1]. These values describe only this saved snapshot. They are not verified probabilities, and they do not show how often similar contracts have resolved.
The sample covers one Polymarket market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single binary contract, there are no other outcomes in the record to compare, and no cross-platform comparison is possible from these sources.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the saved prices are where they are, and it contains no reporting after the snapshot. The Czech protecting power description is tied to market creation, so it may not reflect conditions at the time of retrieval [1].
Resolution depends on official statements from the U.S. and Syrian governments, with "a consensus of credible reporting" also used [1]. The evidence contains no such announcement, and it does not establish whether one will be made. The provider status was recorded as active at retrieval [1], but that status does not indicate how the market will resolve.
References
- Polymarket: U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The PredictPedia contract asks whether the U.S. government will reopen its embassy in Damascus, Syria, by December 31, 2026. The market title carries that date, but the contract's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. The date is a deadline in the contract rules, not an announced event date. The contract resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus, or if a reopening is otherwise confirmed, by the deadline. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. An official announcement made within the timeframe qualifies for "Yes" even if the embassy does not actually open before the deadline [1]. The rules also state that any opening qualifies regardless of its exact location in Damascus [1]. The rules set a clear threshold for announcements. General diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, and partial or conditional steps do not count. An announcement must clearly commit to opening an embassy [1]. The stated resolution sources are official statements from the governments of the United States and Syria, with a consensus of credible reporting also used [1].
Historical Context
The United States has suspended operations of its embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012 [1]. Background material describes the Embassy of the United States of America in Damascus as the diplomatic mission to Syria, opened in 1952, with its complex located in Damascus [2]. The historical background above does not establish any recent or current diplomatic development.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the United States formally commits to restoring a diplomatic presence in Damascus within the stated window. Because the rules count an official announcement even if no building opens before the deadline, the contract tracks a formal policy commitment rather than only a physical reopening [1]. The rules' exclusion of exploratory comments and conditional steps means that broader diplomatic signals alone would not settle the question as "Yes" [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an announcement alone resolve the contract to Yes?
Yes, provided the official announcement clearly commits to opening an embassy and is made within the market's timeframe. The actual opening does not have to occur before the deadline [1].
Does the location of the embassy matter?
No. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus qualifies regardless of its exact location [1].
What kinds of statements will not count?
General diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, and partial or conditional steps will not count toward a Yes resolution [1].
What happens if no qualifying announcement or reopening occurs?
The market resolves to "No" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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