TN-05 House Election Winner
PM $76.4K
1
2
TN-05 House Election Winner
PM $76.4K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Charlie Hatcher (R) at 88.5%.
Polymarket
- Charlie Hatcher (R)88.5%
- Chaz Molder (D)11.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $76.4K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "TN-05 House Election Winner" resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The source states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
The market resolves "based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting." If there is ambiguity, it resolves "based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time. It is not an announced result date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:21:36.536Z [1]. These timestamps describe when the data was captured, not the market's status today. In that snapshot, the Republican Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.945 and a No price of 0.055. The Democratic Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.0435 and a No price of 0.9565 [1].
These are separate contracts about different outcomes. Their prices should not be averaged or combined. Each price is a snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability. The sample includes both saved markets for this event, and the sample is not partial [1]. It covers only the outcomes listed in this provider event. The source warns that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence does not include trading volume or the number of participants, so it cannot show liquidity or depth.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it contains no news about the race or its candidates. No prices from other platforms for this seat are supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Any difference in wording or listed close time between contracts should be checked against each contract's own rules. The saved record lists the provider status as active, but it was captured at an earlier time, so the current state of the market and the eventual outcome cannot be determined from this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: TN-05 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks which party will win the TN-05 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The rules say the market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat, and they state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules define a candidate's party by the affiliation shown on the ballot or otherwise identifiable at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to one of them based on the party with which that candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus at the same point [1]. The market resolves based on the result indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the rules say it resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The market record lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is the listed end time in the provider record. It is not a separate announcement of when the election will be called or when the result will be known. The rules name November 3, 2026 as the election date [1]. The event contains two markets: one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. Each market has Yes and No outcomes. Because the two parties are the subjects of separate contracts, their prices are read separately, and a price in one market does not by itself describe a result in the other.
Historical Context
Two Wikipedia pages in the supplied material describe earlier U.S. House elections, though neither concerns TN-05 or the 2026 race. The 1888 elections were held for the most part on November 6, 1888, for 325 seats representing 38 states, and they took place at the same time as the presidential election of Benjamin Harrison [2]. The 1904 elections were held for the most part on November 8, 1904, for 386 seats representing 45 states, and coincided with the election of Theodore Roosevelt to a full term [3]. These pages offer general background on how House elections have been scheduled in past cycles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the party affiliation of the winner of one specific House seat, TN-05, in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Because the rules define party by ballot listing or caucus intent rather than by a general label, the resolution depends on how the seat's winner is identified at the time the House elections are conclusively called [1]. The official results named in the rules serve as the tiebreaker when credible reporting is ambiguous [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines the winner of this contract?
The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. If the result is ambiguous, the rules call for official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
How is a candidate's party decided?
A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate with no such affiliation to either major party is assigned a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
When is the election, and what is the listed end time?
The rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The market record lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. The end time is a listed value in the provider record and does not announce when results will be declared.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
