Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

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7 markets tracked

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?	Kalshi	96%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?	Kalshi	94%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?	Kalshi	88%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?	Kalshi	71%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?	Kalshi	51%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.10?	Kalshi	31%
Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.20?	Kalshi	16%

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About This Event

September 2026 If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, “CFNAI”, refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average, “CFNAI-MA3”, or the CFNAI Diffusion Index. This market will resolve using the value for September 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, “CFNAI”, refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI three-month moving average, “CFNAI-MA3”, or the CFNAI Diffusion Index. This market will resolve using the value for September 2026 published in the first Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago release that reports the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above 

-0.40, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

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KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above -0.40, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI th

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above -0.30, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI th

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above -0.20, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI th

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above -0.10, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI th

KALSHI

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

If the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 is above 0.00, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (“CFNAI”) refers to the headline monthly index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. It does not refer to the CFNAI thr

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

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Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

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Events (1)

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

Markets (7)

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

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Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.40?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.30?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.20?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above -0.10?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

Will Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September 2026 be above 0.00?

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