BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket record concerns a short-window contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET." The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules also say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with a contract that uses a different source, averaging method, or time window should start from these differences in wording.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T08:10:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time from the contract record. It is not evidence of how or when the contract resolved, and the supplied evidence contains no resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These prices were observed at 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T11:37:58.220Z [1]. Both times fall on October 26, 2026, in UTC, and the observation is earlier than the retrieval. They describe that saved moment only and should not be read as live prices.
The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record. The narrow gap means only that the two sides were nearly equal at the observation time. The evidence does not explain that balance.
The sample contains one market from one provider event on Polymarket. Coverage lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. All saved markets for this event are included, so no omitted outcome exists in this record. The provider listing does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is represented.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show how many traders hold either side. It contains no BNB price data for the window, no resolution outcome, and no information about other platforms or contracts.
Because the window covers only five minutes, the prices could have changed substantially after the saved observation. Different prices across contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity by themselves, especially when the rules, sources, or listed close times differ.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether the price of BNB will finish a five-minute window higher or lower than where it started. The window runs from 4:05 AM to 4:10 AM ET on October 27, and the event is listed under the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The provider marks the contract as active [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. If it is lower, the contract resolves to "Down" [1]. The measure is an average over the window rather than a single price at the end, so a brief spike or dip does not settle the contract by itself. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. A contract on the same asset settled through a different data feed or exchange could therefore produce a different result, so the settlement source is central to reading the contract. The listed end time is 08:10 UTC on October 27 [1]. This is the contract's closing time. It is not a report of how the contract settled. At the time this record was retrieved, on October 26, the contract had not reached that end time. The prices attached to this page are a snapshot taken from the provider at 09:00 UTC on October 26 and retrieved later that morning. They describe the market at that observation time only. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities. The saved event contains this single market, and all saved markets for the event are included, so the sample describes this one contract and not a wider field of outcomes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a short, fixed interval, as defined by a Chainlink time-weighted average price stream [1]. Because the outcome compares the average over the window with the starting price, the contract tracks the net movement of the averaged price rather than a single trade or a single exchange quote [1]. The provider specifies that the Chainlink BNB/USD stream is the sole reference for settlement [1]. Readers comparing this contract with price charts or other venues should keep that source in mind, since the stated rules tie the result to that specific data stream.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" result mean for this contract?
An "Up" result applies when the BNB/USD time-weighted average price over the 4:05 AM to 4:10 AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, according to the Chainlink data stream [1].
Does a higher price at the end of the window automatically mean Up?
No. The contract uses the time-weighted average price across the window and compares it with the price at the beginning of the window, not the price at the end alone [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The provider states that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
When does the contract close?
The listed end time is 08:10 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. That time marks the close of the contract and does not by itself report the final result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.