This prediction market addresses the critical question of succession for the most powerful political and religious office in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Supreme Leader. The position, currently held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old as of 2024, combines ultimate religious authority with final say over all state matters, including foreign policy, military command, and the judiciary. The question of who will succeed him is paramount for Iran's future direction and its relations with the world. The succession process is opaque, controlled by the 88-member Assembly of Experts, a clerical body elected by the public but vetted by the Guardian Council. There is no clear constitutional line of succession, making the outcome highly uncertain and dependent on complex negotiations within the regime's inner circles. Interest in this topic stems from its profound implications for regional stability, nuclear negotiations, domestic repression, and the potential for significant political change within Iran's unique theocratic system.

Historical Context

The position of Supreme Leader was created by the 1979 Constitution following the Iranian Revolution, vesting ultimate authority in a single religious figure, or *faqih*. The first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, held the role until his death in 1989. His succession was not preordained. The Assembly of Experts elevated the then-President, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to the role despite his relatively mid-level clerical rank, a move that required a swift constitutional amendment. This precedent is critical, as it demonstrates the assembly's power to choose a leader who may not be the most senior marja (source of emulation) and that political loyalty can outweigh scholarly stature. The 1989 transition was managed during a national crisis, the end of the Iran-Iraq War, and set the tone for Khamenei's decades-long rule, which has seen the systematic empowerment of the Revolutionary Guards and the marginalization of reformist factions. The next succession will be the first not involving a founding revolutionary, occurring in a Iran facing severe economic sanctions, widespread public discontent, and a more interconnected world.

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