Name: NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z

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NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner | PredictPedia

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4 markets tracked

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Poly	48%
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Poly	48%
Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Poly	42%
Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Poly	16%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 12, 2026 (116 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $206
* **Total Liquidity:** $331
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 42.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 16.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

115d 12h remaining

May 12, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

38¢

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Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

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Events (1)

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (4)

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

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Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Will Evangelos Argyrakis be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Related News & Context

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