Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner
PM $25.8K · K 6.7K contracts
2
12
Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner
PM $25.8K · K 6.7K contracts
2
12
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, ND is priced at 85% on Polymarket and 85% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSame question, fine print differs | 85% | 85% | 0.0 pts |
| PASOK-KINALSame question, fine print differs | 1.1% | 5.5% | 4.5 pts |
| SYRIZASame question, fine print differs | <0.1% | 4% | 3.9 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $25.8K · K 6.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
12
Saved contracts
3
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Parliamentary elections to elect the Hellenic Parliament are scheduled to be held before July 25, 2027. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament as a result of the next Greek parliamentary election. If voting in the specified election does not occur or there continues to be ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independent candidates and the formation of parliamentary groups will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Greek government. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which party wins the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary election, and each listed party has its own Yes or No contract [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament as a result of the next Greek parliamentary election" [1]. If voting does not occur, or results remain ambiguous, by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Ties go first to the party that received more valid votes, then to alphabetical order of the abbreviation [1]. For coalitions, a listed party that runs with unlisted parties is represented by its own market, and a jointly listed coalition is represented by the member party that won the most seats in the previous election [1].
The listed end time is 2027-07-26T03:59:00.000Z [1]. The source says the election is scheduled "before July 25, 2027" [1]. This is wording from the contract rules, not a confirmed election date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:42:08.051Z [1]. These times describe this snapshot only, not current conditions. The nine markets show New Democracy (ND) with a Yes price of 0.915 and a No price of 0.085 [1]. The other eight parties have Yes prices between 0.0015 and 0.0435 [1]. Prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The nine Yes prices sum to 0.984, but each contract is quoted separately, so that total should not be treated as a finding.
The evidence includes no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record lists nine of nine markets and marks the sample as not partial [1]. The source still cautions that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The saved sample has no separate market for "Other," so this snapshot gives no price for that outcome. Prices after the observation time are not represented here. Because each contract covers a different party, these prices should not be averaged or ranked against other platforms, and the evidence contains no other platform's data for comparison.
References
- Polymarket: Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia market concerns the next Greek parliamentary election and which party will win the most seats in the Hellenic Parliament. The provider's rules say the election is scheduled to be held before July 25, 2027 [1]. The market resolves to the party that wins the greatest number of seats in that election [1]. Under the rules, the market resolves to "Other" if voting in the specified election does not occur, or if results remain ambiguous as reported by the Greek government, by December 31, 2027 [1]. The contract is based on seats, not votes. The rules state that resolution depends solely on the number of seats won by the named party, and that independent candidates and the formation of parliamentary groups are not considered [1]. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, and in cases of ambiguity, on the results as reported by the Greek government [1]. The rules also set out tie-breaking and coalition treatment. If two parties are tied for the most seats, the market favors the party with more valid votes. If that is still tied, it favors the party whose abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order [1]. If a listed party runs in a coalition with unlisted parties, its market represents the coalition and counts all coalition seats together [1]. If two or more listed parties run as a jointly listed coalition, the market for the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election represents the coalition [1]. If such a coalition dissolves, each market again represents its party individually [1]. The saved event lists nine party markets. Each is a separate yes or no contract on whether that party wins the most seats [1]. The displayed prices are provider snapshots of Yes and No contracts. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Historical Context
The most recent election referenced in the supplied sources is the snap parliamentary election held in Greece on 21 May 2023, which elected all 300 members of the Hellenic Parliament [2]. It was the first Greek election since 1990 held without a seat bonus, a change linked to amendments to the electoral law made in 2016. The elections used proportional representation [2]. The sources do not describe results of the next election, which has not yet been held according to the contract's own scheduling language [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the largest number of seats after the next Greek parliamentary election [1]. Because it is seat-based, a party's vote share alone does not decide the outcome, except as a tie-breaker [1]. The coalition rules mean that a party's market can reflect joint lists, and the fallback to "Other" means the contract also turns on whether a valid, unambiguous election result is reported by the stated deadline [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if the election does not take place by the deadline?
If voting in the specified election does not occur, or if there continues to be ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
How are ties resolved?
In a tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received more valid votes. If the vote count is also tied, it resolves in favor of the party whose abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order among those listed [1].
Does a party running in a coalition count?
If a listed party runs with unlisted parties, its market counts all seats won by the coalition [1]. If listed parties run as a jointly listed coalition, the market for the party in that coalition with the most seats in the previous election counts all coalition seats [1].
Do the prices show the chance of each party winning?
The saved prices are provider snapshots of contract prices, and the supplied evidence does not establish them as verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Andorran parliamentary election winner?
K 0 contracts
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
PM $1.22M · K 82.4K contractsWill Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Kalshi: Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)
Related contracts
Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Kalshi: Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
Same question, fine print differs
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
Kalshi: Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Next Prime Minister of Greece?
PM $38.3K · K 12.5K contractsWill Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
Kalshi: Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?
Related contracts
Will Alexis Tsipras be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
Kalshi: Will Alexis Tsipras become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?
Related contracts
Will Maria Karystianou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
Kalshi: Will Maria Karystianou become Prime Minister of Greece following the next Greek general election?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner
PM $9.3K · K 953.44 contractsWill Isamaa win the most seats in the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Kalshi: Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Same question, fine print differs
Will Centre Party win the most seats in the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Kalshi: Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Same question, fine print differs
Will Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Kalshi: Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
PM $11.9K
Next Japanese general election winner?
K 13.5K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
2
Same-question pairs
3
Largest saved gap: 4.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
