Market snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next Japanese general election winner?

Reported volume

K 13.5K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Next Japanese general election winner?

Vol

K 13.5K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Liberal Democratic Party at 74%.

Kalshi

Liberal Democratic Party74%
Democratic Party for the People5.5%
Team Mirai4.5%
Sanseitō4.5%
Japan Innovation Party4.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	74.0%
Will Democratic Party for the People win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	5.5%
Will Team Mirai win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will Sanseitō win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will Japan Innovation Party win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will Democratic Reform Party win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will Constitutional Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?	Kalshi	4.5%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 13.5K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

About This Event

House of Representatives If X wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Next Japanese general election winner?
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 13.5K contracts
Coverage: 7 of 7 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Team Mirai win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-TMIR; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Team Mirai wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Sanseitō win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-SANS; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Sanseitō wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-LDP; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 74.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 26.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Liberal Democratic Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Japan Innovation Party win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-JIP; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Japan Innovation Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Democratic Reform Party win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-DRP; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.5K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Democratic Reform Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Democratic Party for the People win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-DPP; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 3.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Democratic Party for the People wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Contract: Will Constitutional Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-CDP; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjapanhouse-30feb07
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Feb 7, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 1.0K contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Constitutional Democratic Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next Japanese general election winner?

Volume$13.49K

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?

kalshi

Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?

Yes: 74.0¢
No: 26.0¢

Will Democratic Party for the People win the next Japanese general election?

kalshi

Will Democratic Party for the People win the next Japanese general election?

Yes: 5.5¢
No: 94.5¢

Will Team Mirai win the next Japanese general election?

kalshi

Will Team Mirai win the next Japanese general election?

Yes: 4.5¢
No: 95.5¢

Will Sanseitō win the next Japanese general election?

kalshi

Will Sanseitō win the next Japanese general election?

Yes: 4.5¢
No: 95.5¢

Will Japan Innovation Party win the next Japanese general election?

kalshi

Will Japan Innovation Party win the next Japanese general election?

Yes: 4.5¢
No: 95.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

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Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jul 26, 2027 UTC

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Next Market Deadline

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Feb 07, 2031, 3:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Next Japanese general election winner?

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