$35.67K
1
5
$35.67K
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Project Hail Mary (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by March 27, 2026, 11:59
Traders on Polymarket are almost certain that the film Project Hail Mary will get a positive score from critics. The market shows a 98% chance the movie will earn at least a 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. In simple terms, this means traders see it as a near certainty, with only a very small possibility it fails to clear that low bar. The market has attracted over $36,000 in bets, showing solid interest from a niche group of followers.
Several factors explain this high confidence. First, the film is an adaptation of Andy Weir’s bestselling novel, which shares a creator with the highly successful The Martian. That earlier adaptation was both a critical and commercial hit, earning a 91% Tomatometer score. This creates a strong track record for translating Weir’s science-heavy, character-driven stories to the screen.
Second, the project has major talent attached. Ryan Gosling is set to star, and Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, known for hits like The Lego Movie and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, are directing. Their involvement suggests the film will balance scientific problem-solving with the humor and heart that made the book popular.
Finally, the target score of 50% is not particularly high. It only requires slightly more positive reviews than negative ones. Given the source material’s popularity and the proven team behind it, traders believe even a mediocre reception would likely still clear that threshold.
The market resolves on March 23, 2026, based on the Rotten Tomatoes score available that morning. The most important shifts will come from early critical reactions. Watch for the film’s premiere at a festival like SXSW or its initial press screenings in early to mid-March 2026. The first published reviews from major outlets will be the clearest signal of whether the film meets or exceeds expectations.
Prediction markets have a mixed but generally decent record on film scores. They often accurately capture the direction of critical consensus, especially for high-profile releases with lots of available information. However, they can be less reliable for predicting exact scores or for movies where early buzz is tightly controlled. The extreme confidence here, at 98%, is notable. While the factors point to success, markets can sometimes overestimate sure things, especially when a question has a low threshold like 50%. The real test will be whether the film achieves the 80-90% range that matches its pedigree or merely scrapes by.
Prediction markets assign a 98% probability that Project Hail Mary will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of at least 50%. This price indicates near-certainty among traders that the film will clear the low critical bar of a "Fresh" rating. With only 22 days until the market resolves, this extreme confidence has persisted despite relatively thin trading volume of $36,000. The market is effectively pricing in a critical success, with a catastrophic failure seen as a remote possibility.
Three concrete elements justify the market's bullish stance. First, the film's creative pedigree is exceptionally strong. It reunites the core team from The Martian: director Ridley Scott, star Matt Damon, and writer Drew Goddard, adapting another acclaimed novel by Andy Weir. Their previous collaboration earned a 91% Tomatometer score and was a commercial hit. Second, early industry tracking and reported test screenings have generated positive buzz, suggesting the adaptation meets audience expectations for smart, character-driven sci-fi. Third, the threshold itself is low. A score of 50% requires only a marginally positive critical reception, a hurdle most major studio films with this level of talent clear easily. Historical data shows that fewer than 20% of wide-release films from major studios score below 50%.
The 98% price leaves little room for movement, but a sudden shift would require a significant, negative catalyst. The primary risk is an unexpectedly poor critical reaction following the film's premiere. If early reviews from major publications following the March 20 release are scathing, the probability could drop rapidly. However, given the film's March 14 release date, the market will have over a week of actual critic reviews before it resolves, making a surprise less likely. A more plausible, though still improbable, scenario involves a controversy unrelated to the film's quality, such as a major scandal involving a key cast or crew member, that could taint the critical discourse. The thin liquidity means a large, contrarian bet could also move the price more than in a deeper market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the critical reception of the 2026 film adaptation of 'Project Hail Mary,' specifically its Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. The market will resolve based on whether the 'All Critics' score meets or exceeds a predetermined threshold on March 23, 2026. Rotten Tomatoes, owned by Fandango Media, aggregates reviews from approved critics to produce a percentage score representing the proportion of positive reviews. A high score indicates widespread critical acclaim, while a low score suggests negative reception. The film is an adaptation of Andy Weir's 2021 science fiction novel, which follows a lone astronaut who wakes up with amnesia on a spaceship and must solve an interstellar mystery to save humanity. The novel was a commercial and critical success, spending over 40 weeks on The New York Times Best Seller list. Interest in this market stems from the high-profile nature of the adaptation, the involvement of major Hollywood talent, and the historical performance of similar sci-fi adaptations. The outcome will be seen as a key indicator of the film's artistic success and could influence its box office performance and awards season prospects. Prediction markets like this one allow participants to speculate on future events based on available information, creating a financial incentive for accurate forecasting.
The historical context for this prediction involves the track record of Andy Weir adaptations and the performance of major sci-fi films on Rotten Tomatoes. The 2015 film 'The Martian,' directed by Ridley Scott and starring Matt Damon, was adapted from Weir's first novel. It achieved a 91% Tomatometer score based on 340 reviews and was a major awards contender. This success created a direct precedent and high benchmark for 'Project Hail Mary.' Other big-budget science fiction films from recent years provide additional context. For instance, 'Dune: Part One' (2021) directed by Denis Villeneuve earned an 83% score, while 'Interstellar' (2014) directed by Christopher Nolan holds an 73% score. The critical reception of films directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller is also relevant. Their film 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' (2018) achieved a near-perfect 97% Tomatometer score. However, not all high-profile sci-fi adaptations meet expectations; 'Ad Astra' (2019) scored 83%, and 'Annihilation' (2018) scored 88%. The resolution of this market will add a new data point to this history, indicating whether 'Project Hail Mary' joins the ranks of critically lauded sci-fi or falls short.
The Rotten Tomatoes score for 'Project Hail Mary' matters because it functions as a leading indicator for the film's broader cultural and commercial impact. A high score, typically above 80-90%, can generate positive word-of-mouth, drive stronger opening weekend box office numbers, and extend the film's theatrical lifespan. It also positions the film favorably for awards season consideration, particularly in technical categories common for sci-fi, but potentially also in major categories if the reception is exceptionally strong. Conversely, a score below the threshold specified in the prediction market could signal a disappointing critical response. This might dampen audience interest, affect the film's financial return on a reported large budget, and influence the career trajectories of its key players. For the prediction market itself, the outcome validates or challenges the collective wisdom of its participants regarding the factors that lead to critical success in Hollywood, including source material, director pedigree, and star power.
As of late 2024, 'Project Hail Mary' is in pre-production. Principal photography is scheduled to begin in early 2025. The film has a confirmed release date set for March 20, 2026. The core creative team of directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller and star Ryan Gosling is locked in. No test screenings or early critical reactions are available, so all predictions are based on the track records of the involved parties, the strength of the source material, and comparisons to similar films. The prediction market is active based on this available information, with participants weighing these factors against the specified score threshold.
A score of 60% or above is generally considered 'Fresh,' indicating more positive reviews than negative. Scores above 75% are seen as very positive, and scores above 90% indicate widespread critical acclaim. The threshold for 'good' can vary by genre and expectations.
The score accurately reflects the percentage of positive reviews from the site's approved critics. It does not measure the average rating or intensity of praise. It is a metric of critical consensus, not a qualitative assessment of film quality, though a high consensus often correlates with broader approval.
As of late 2024, filming has not started. The film is in pre-production, with principal photography scheduled to begin in early 2025 for its March 20, 2026 release date.
The film is being directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, the filmmaking duo known for 'The Lego Movie' and the 'Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse' films. They are also co-writing the screenplay.
The 2015 film 'The Martian,' adapted from Andy Weir's first novel, holds a 91% Tomatometer score based on 340 critic reviews. This is the most direct comparison for the upcoming 'Project Hail Mary' adaptation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 98% |
| Poly | 97% |
| Poly | 94% |
| Poly | 89% |
| Poly | 75% |
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