Karl Bushby is a British adventurer and former paratrooper who has been walking around the world since 1998. His goal is to walk from Punta Arenas, Chile, back to his home city of Hull, England, covering approximately 36,000 miles (58,000 kilometers) on foot. He calls this journey the Goliath Expedition. As of 2025, Bushby has walked through 30 countries, crossed the Americas, Australia, Southeast Asia, and parts of Europe, but still faces a long stretch through Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe before reaching Hull. The expedition has been interrupted by visa issues, funding problems, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced him to pause in Russia for several years. The prediction market asks whether he will complete this walk before January 1, 2030. Bushby's progress is tracked on his website and social media, where he posts updates and photos. The challenge is not just the distance but the logistics of crossing politically sensitive regions like the Russian Far East and the Caucasus, as well as the physical toll of walking for decades. Bushby turned 55 in 2024, and while he remains determined, the time left before 2030 is short relative to the remaining route. The market reflects public skepticism about his ability to finish, given his slow pace and the obstacles ahead. Interest in the Goliath Expedition comes from adventure enthusiasts, long-distance hiking communities, and people fascinated by extreme endurance feats. Bushby's story has been covered by outlets like the BBC, The Guardian, and outdoor magazines. The market also touches on broader questions about human perseverance, the feasibility of circumnavigating the world on foot, and the impact of geopolitical barriers on travel.

Historical Context

Karl Bushby began the Goliath Expedition on November 1, 1998, in Punta Arenas, Chile. The idea was to walk the entire circumference of the Earth, staying on land as much as possible. He walked north through South and Central America, reaching the United States in 2002. He crossed the US from Texas to Alaska, arriving in 2004. In 2006, he attempted to walk across the Bering Strait on sea ice but failed due to unsafe conditions; he instead crossed by boat in 2007. From Russia, he walked through Siberia and into Kazakhstan, then across China, Southeast Asia, and Australia, which he completed in 2015. He then flew back to Russia to continue walking west. The expedition has taken far longer than expected. Bushby originally thought he would finish in about 10 years. Delays include visa problems in Russia, a serious illness in 2013, and the COVID-19 pandemic, which trapped him in Russia from 2020 to 2022. By 2023, he had walked through Russia to the border with Kazakhstan, then turned north toward the Caucasus. As of 2025, he is somewhere in the Caucasus region, heading toward Europe. The remaining route goes through Georgia, Turkey, the Balkans, and across Europe to the UK. The total distance left is roughly 4,000 miles (6,400 kilometers), but the terrain is mountainous and politically complex. Bushby is now in his late 50s, and his pace has slowed. No one has ever completed a fully continuous, unassisted walk around the world that starts and ends at the same point on land. Several people have claimed circumnavigations, but most used flights or boats for ocean crossings. Bushby's attempt is among the most ambitious and longest-running.

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