Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

Name: Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$65.05K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

Vol

$65.05K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $65.05K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $65.05K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	31%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	21%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	21%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	14%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Poly	2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$65.05K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the pa

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the pa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to the sin"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $65.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $251.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.26)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $404
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $56.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $311
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $256
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $381
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $472
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $926
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $281
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 5, 2026): Vol $299
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics