$101.60K
1
3
$101.60K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026 between CF Cruz Azul and CD Guadalajara.
Prediction markets give CF Cruz Azul about a 39% chance of winning their Liga MX match against CD Guadalajara on February 21, 2026. In simple terms, traders collectively believe a Cruz Azul victory is somewhat unlikely, seeing it as roughly a 2 in 5 chance. The market currently views Guadalajara, often called Chivas, as the favorite to either win or draw.
A few factors are likely shaping these odds. First is the historic rivalry itself. This is the "Clásico Nacional," one of Mexico's biggest soccer derbies, known for intense and often unpredictable matches. Historical performance in such high-pressure games can be a wild card, but recent form often influences traders more.
Second, the specific teams' trajectories and roster rules matter. CD Guadalajara has a unique policy of only fielding Mexican-born players, which can create a strong cohesive identity. Their performance in the seasons leading up to this 2026 match will be a major factor. If they are higher in the standings or have shown better recent form, the market would reflect that.
Finally, the location of the match is key. If the game is at Guadalajara's Estadio Akron, their home-field advantage in a charged derby atmosphere could be significant enough to sway the odds against a Cruz Azul win.
The main event is the match itself on Saturday, February 21, 2026. In the weeks before, watch for two things that could shift the predictions. Key player injuries or suspensions announced in the lead-up will immediately impact the perceived chances. Also, the teams' performances in their immediate matches before this derby will provide fresh evidence of their current form, potentially moving the odds.
Prediction markets are generally good at aggregating diverse information for sporting events, often matching or exceeding the accuracy of expert pundits. However, for a major derby like this, the reliability has a caveat. The high emotion and randomness inherent in any single rivalry match can lead to surprises. The markets are efficient at weighing known factors like team strength and location, but they cannot account for a moment of individual brilliance or a critical refereeing decision, which are always possible in a clásico.
The prediction market on Polymarket prices a Cruz Azul victory at 39¢, implying a 39% probability. This means traders see a Guadalajara win or a draw as the more likely combined outcome. The market for a Guadalajara win trades at 36%, while the draw market is at 27%. With $102,000 in total volume, the market has sufficient liquidity for its odds to be taken seriously. The pricing suggests a very close match is expected, with a slight edge given to avoiding a Cruz Azul win.
The tight odds reflect the historic competitiveness of the "Clásico Joven" rivalry, where recent form often dictates sentiment. Cruz Azul's specific 39% price likely accounts for their inconsistent performances in recent seasons despite their status as a perennial contender. Guadalajara's own struggles to find top form create a market view that neither side is a clear favorite. Home-field advantage for Cruz Azul at the Estadio Azteca is likely baked into the price, but not seen as a decisive factor. The high probability for "Not Cruz Azul Win" at 61% shows traders hedging against the favorite in a volatile derby.
Significant pre-match team news would be the primary catalyst. An injury to a key attacker like Cruz Azul's Uriel Antuna or Guadalajara's Roberto Alvarado could shift the lines by 5-10 percentage points. Drastic changes are unlikely given the market's maturity, but last-minute lineup announcements often cause volatility. The draw market at 27% is sensitive to tactical announcements; a conservative starting XI from either manager would see money flow into that outcome. Post-match, the resolution will depend on the official result, with these contracts settling based on the full-time score after 90 minutes.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The upcoming Liga MX match between CF Cruz Azul and CD Guadalajara, scheduled for Saturday, February 21, 2026, is a regular season fixture in Mexico's top professional football division. This particular game is a Clásico Joven, a major rivalry between two of Mexico City's most prominent clubs. Cruz Azul, based in the capital, and Guadalajara, representing the city of Guadalajara, have a competitive history dating back decades, making their meetings among the most anticipated in the Mexican football calendar. The match will be played at Cruz Azul's home stadium, the Estadio Azteca, one of the world's most iconic football venues. The result will impact the standings for the Clausura 2026 tournament, the second half of the 2025-2026 Liga MX season. Both clubs have large, passionate fanbases and are historically successful, with Guadalajara holding a record 12 league titles and Cruz Azul having won 9. The game is expected to draw a significant television audience across Mexico and the United States, where Liga MX is widely broadcast. Interest extends beyond the immediate sporting contest due to the rivalry's cultural significance and its implications for playoff qualification. Prediction markets are active for this event, allowing participants to wager on outcomes like the match winner, total goals, and specific player performances.
The rivalry between Cruz Azul and Guadalajara, known as the Clásico Joven or 'Young Classic', originated in the 1970s as both clubs challenged the dominance of Club América. The first major final between them occurred in 1970, with Cruz Azul defeating Guadalajara to win the Mexican Cup. This established a pattern of high-stakes meetings. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, Cruz Azul enjoyed significant success, reaching multiple CONCACAF Champions' Cup finals, while Guadalajara struggled to replicate its historic dominance. The rivalry intensified in the 21st century with several playoff clashes. A notable chapter was the 2017 Clausura semifinal, where Guadalajara defeated Cruz Azul en route to winning its 12th league title, a record it still holds. Cruz Azul ended a 23-year league title drought by winning the 2021 Guardianes championship, which included a victory over Guadalajara in the group stage. The head-to-head record in Liga MX play is relatively even, with each club claiming numerous victories, reflecting the rivalry's competitive balance over decades. Matches at the Estadio Azteca, which Cruz Azul has called home since 2018, often draw crowds exceeding 70,000.
This match has substantial economic implications. A Clásico Joven generates major revenue from ticket sales at the 87,000-capacity Estadio Azteca, broadcasting rights, and sponsorship activations. Liga MX's television deal with TelevisaUnivision and ESPN values high-rating games like this one, influencing future contract negotiations. For the clubs, a positive result can boost merchandise sales and strengthen brand value among their massive fanbases. Socially, the match is a major cultural event in Mexico. It divides families and workplaces along club loyalties, generating widespread media coverage and public debate. The rivalry transcends sport, touching on regional identities between Mexico City and Guadalajara, the country's two largest metropolitan areas. A win provides bragging rights that last until the next meeting and can significantly impact team morale and fan sentiment for the remainder of the season. For players, performing well in a Clásico can enhance their national team prospects and their market value for potential transfers.
As of the lead-up to the February 2026 match, both teams are competing in the Clausura 2026 tournament. Their exact league positions and form will be determined by results in the weeks preceding this fixture. The winter transfer window, which closed in January 2026, may have altered squad compositions with new signings or departures. Both clubs are expected to have near-full squad availability, barring any last-minute injuries sustained in training or the previous matchday. The coaching staffs are finalizing tactical preparations, with media attention intensifying in the days before the game. Ticket sales for the match at the Estadio Azteca are likely sold out or very close to capacity.
The official kickoff time for Liga MX matches is typically announced 1-2 weeks in advance. For a Saturday Clásico Joven, the most common slots are 8:00 PM or 9:00 PM Central Standard Time. The exact time will be confirmed by Liga MX and broadcasters like Televisa, TUDN, or ESPN.
In the United States, the match will be televised in Spanish on TUDN and likely on Univision. English-language coverage is usually provided on ESPN Deportes and may be available on ESPN+. Streaming options include the TUDN app, ESPN+, and FuboTV, which carries these channels.
The historical head-to-head record is competitive. According to Liga MX statistics, across all official competitions, Cruz Azul holds a slight edge in total victories. However, Guadalajara has won more league championships, which their fans often cite as the ultimate measure of success.
The name 'Clásico Joven' means 'Young Classic' in Spanish. It distinguishes this rivalry from the older 'Clásico Nacional' between Club América and Guadalajara. The Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara rivalry gained prominence in the 1970s, later than the other major Mexican derbies, hence the 'young' label.
Club Deportivo Guadalajara has a longstanding, formal policy of fielding only players born in Mexico. This unique philosophy is a core part of the club's identity and is a major point of differentiation from other Liga MX teams, including Cruz Azul, which regularly fields foreign players.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 39% |
| Poly | 36% |
| Poly | 27% |
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