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Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsEntertainment

Eurovision Winner 2026?

Name: Eurovision Winner 2026?
End: 2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$122.93M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Eurovision Winner 2026?

Vol

$122.93M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $122.93M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.3%avg

max 1.0%

Arbitrage

of 34 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $122.93M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

36 markets tracked

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(34)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	35%	36%	1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	18%	18%	0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	13%	14%	1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	8%	8%	0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	7%	8%	1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	4%	5%	1%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	3%	3%	0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	3%	3%	0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	3%	2%	1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?	1%	2%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(2)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$122.93M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Eurovision Winner 2026?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announce"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $122.94M
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.84M
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.28)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (35 mkts) vs Kalshi (35 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.33M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $6.35M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.03M
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $3.24M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.75M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.00M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $1.46M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $1.88M
  DATA: [Yes: 12.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $3.77M
  DATA: [Yes: 34.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will France win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.50M
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.54M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.62M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.29M
  DATA: [Yes: 17.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.16M
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.84M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.68M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.05M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.89M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.78M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.50M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $3.60M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.83M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.64M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $1.97M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.03M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $1.70M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.63M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $1.97M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $2.65M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Eurovision Winner 2026 (Armenia)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $5.41M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIEntertainment

Eurovision Winner 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets35

POLYMARKETCulture

Eurovision Winner 2026

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official

Volume$122.93M

Markets35

36 of 36

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average35.1%

Polymarket

34.6%

Kalshi+0.9%

35.5%

Difference:0.9%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 34.6¢No 65.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Finland)

If Finland wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average17.7%

Polymarket+0.4%

17.8%

Kalshi

17.5%

Difference:0.4%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 17.8¢No 82.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Greece)

If Greece wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average13.2%

Polymarket

12.8%

Kalshi+0.7%

13.5%

Difference:0.7%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.8¢No 87.1¢

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Denmark)

If Denmark wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average7.6%

Polymarket+0.1%

7.6%

Kalshi

7.5%

Difference:0.1%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 7.6¢No 92.3¢

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Australia)

If Australia wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average7.2%

Polymarket

6.9%

Kalshi+0.7%

7.5%

Difference:0.7%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 6.9¢No 93.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

POLYMARKETCulture

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (France)

If France wins the Eurovision Song Contest, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

3¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/RLPCW2" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Eurovision Winner 2026?"></iframe>

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Eurovision Winner 2026?

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Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Eurovision Winner 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026

Markets (34)

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Finland)

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Greece)

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Denmark)

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Australia)

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (France)

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Discussion

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Eurovision Winner 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Finland)

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Greece)

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Denmark)

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (Australia)

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 (France)

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