GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Name: Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
End: 2026-10-02T06:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.27K

Events

Markets

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Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Vol

$13.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?	Poly	39%
Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?	Poly	19%
Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?	Poly	14%
Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?	Poly	13%
Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?	Poly	10%
Will there be a power grid emergency in New England before October 1?	Poly	9%
Will there be a power grid emergency in Texas before October 1?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$13.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes". Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid oper

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 2, 2026 (27 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes".

Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid oper

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 20"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 2, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be a power grid emergency in Texas before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $742
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 2, 2026): Vol $82
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 2, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be a power grid emergency in New England before October 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 2, 2026): Vol $115
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Volume$13.27K

Markets7

7 of 7

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POLYMARKET

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this

POLYMARKET

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balanc

POLYMARKET

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Marylan

POLYMARKET

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration

POLYMARKET

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

POLYMARKETClimate

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 20

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Next Market Closes

26d 8h remaining

Oct 02, 2026 6:59 AM

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Average Yes Price

16¢

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Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

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Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Markets (7)

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

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Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Central US before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Midwest before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in the Mid-Atlantic before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in New York before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency in California before October 1?

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