GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Name: Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
End: 2026-08-31T20:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$270.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Houthis successfully target shipping on...?

Vol

$270.71K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $270.71K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $270.71K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	Poly	78%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$270.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taki

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taki

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 317.89)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 17, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics