GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

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How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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9 markets tracked

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	83%
Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	67%
Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	55%
Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will average gas prices be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	16%
Will average gas prices be below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will average gas prices be below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will average gas prices be below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

83%

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About This Event

In 2026 If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than X at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance, March 23, 2026, through December 31, 2026, inclusive; prices reported earlier in 2026 do not count. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will US gas prices get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than X at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance, March 23, 2026, through December 31, 2026, inclusive; prices reported earlier in 2026 do not count. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10:15am, 11am, or 3pm ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average **gas prices** be below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average **gas prices** be below $2.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average **gas prices** be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will average **gas prices** be below $2.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will average **gas prices** be below $2.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.5¢No 33.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.0¢No 45.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $2.40 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De

KALSHI

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.0¢No 68.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.00 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through De

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Average Yes Price

36¢

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How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

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Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Events (1)

How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

Markets (9)

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will US gas prices get in 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average **gas prices** be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

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Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.20 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $2.40 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

Will average gas prices be below $3.00 by Dec 31, 2026?