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$149.35K
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$149.35K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, re
Prediction markets currently show traders are nearly certain that Anthropic will have the second-ranked AI model at the end of February 2026. The market assigns this a 100% probability, which means traders see it as virtually guaranteed. This forecast is based on the upcoming snapshot of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, a popular public ranking where AI models are compared and scored based on anonymous user votes.
The market's certainty stems from the current, stable state of the leaderboard and the specific rules of this prediction. As of now, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model holds a firm second place on the "Style Control On" leaderboard. The market resolves based on a single check of this leaderboard at a specific time on February 28, 2026.
Given that the check is imminent and no major model releases or leaderboard updates are expected in the final hours, the ranking is effectively locked in. Historically, the top positions on this particular leaderboard have not shifted in the days leading up to a scheduled resolution. Traders are essentially betting on a present reality, not a future uncertainty, which explains the extreme confidence.
The only event that matters is the scheduled data check on February 28, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. At that exact time, the market will resolve based on the "Arena Score" shown on the lmarena.ai leaderboard. No other announcements or product launches before that deadline will change the outcome, because the leaderboard itself takes time to collect new user votes and update scores. The window for any change has effectively passed.
For markets that resolve based on a simple, verifiable snapshot of an existing public dataset, prediction markets are extremely reliable. This isn't a forecast about a future election or product launch, it's a bet on a frozen moment in time. The accuracy here depends entirely on the reliability of the data source (the Chatbot Arena) and the market's correct interpretation of the rules. In this specific case, the 100% probability reflects a near-certain outcome, not a nuanced prediction. The main limitation is that it tells us nothing about the competitive AI landscape beyond this single day. It simply confirms what is already true today will still be true on the snapshot date.
The Polymarket contract "Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026?" is trading at 100 cents, or 100%. This price indicates the market has fully resolved in favor of "Yes." With $184,000 in total volume across related contracts, participants have shown strong conviction. A 100% price means the market's outcome is considered a certainty by traders, with no remaining speculative doubt about the result.
The market resolves based on the public Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, a crowdsourced benchmark where users vote on model outputs. The final data snapshot for February 28, 2026, showed Anthropic's Claude model family, likely Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a subsequent iteration, secured the second-highest "Arena Score" under the "style control on" setting. This leaderboard is a widely referenced public scoreboard, making the outcome objectively verifiable and non-disputable. The high trading volume and final price reflect this clarity. The result confirms Anthropic's sustained position as a top-tier AI lab, consistently trailing only OpenAI's GPT models in this particular public evaluation throughout the measured period.
For this specific market, nothing can change the odds. The resolution date has passed, and the outcome is determined by the published leaderboard state as of February 28, 2026. The 100% price is final. For future positioning, markets tracking the March 2026 leaderboard would now be relevant. Shifts in those odds would depend on new model releases from competitors like Google's Gemini, Meta's Llama, or emerging players, which could challenge Anthropic's #2 rank. However, this closed contract solely reflects a historical fact confirmed by the LMSys Arena data.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which company will possess the second-ranked artificial intelligence model by the end of February 2026. The resolution is based on a specific, objective benchmark: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard maintained at lmarena.ai. The market will check the 'Arena Score' section of the leaderboard's 'text' category with 'style control on' at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on February 28, 2026. The company whose model holds the second-highest score at that precise moment will be declared the winner. This market is not about raw technical specifications or marketing claims, but about a model's demonstrated performance in a competitive, crowd-sourced evaluation platform where thousands of users vote on the quality of AI responses in blind tests. The Chatbot Arena, launched by researchers from UC Berkeley, University of California San Diego, and Carnegie Mellon University, has become a widely cited reference point for comparing large language models. Its 'arena score' is derived from an Elo rating system, similar to those used in chess, which updates continuously based on user votes in head-to-head model comparisons. The 'style control on' setting is a specific filter that attempts to normalize for differences in response verbosity and formatting, aiming to judge the underlying quality of the content. Interest in this market stems from the intense competition and rapid pace of innovation in the AI sector. Companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta invest billions of dollars in developing these models, and their relative positioning on public leaderboards influences investor sentiment, developer adoption, and public perception. The race for second place is particularly dynamic, as OpenAI's GPT models have consistently held the top position, making the battle for the runner-up spot a fierce contest among other well-funded contenders. This market offers a way to speculate on which organization will successfully close the performance gap or introduce a breakthrough model in the coming years.
The competitive benchmarking of AI models entered a new phase with the November 2022 public release of OpenAI's ChatGPT, which demonstrated the capabilities of the GPT-3.5 model. This event triggered an 'AI arms race' among major tech companies. Prior to this, model comparisons were largely confined to academic benchmarks like MMLU (Massive Multitask Language Understanding) or HELM (Holistic Evaluation of Language Models). These benchmarks, while useful, could be gamed through specialized training and did not always reflect real-world user experience. In response to this gap, researchers from UC Berkeley, UCSD, and CMU launched the Chatbot Arena in May 2023. The platform allowed users to anonymously chat with two unnamed models and vote for which response was better. This crowd-sourced, blind evaluation method produced the 'arena score,' an Elo rating that provided a dynamic, human-centric ranking. The initial leaderboard in mid-2023 showed OpenAI's GPT-4 in first place, with Claude and early versions of Google's PaLM and Meta's Llama models competing below. A significant historical precedent for this market is the volatility of the #2 position. Throughout 2023 and 2024, the second rank frequently changed hands. For example, in March 2024, Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus briefly overtook GPT-4 Turbo on the arena leaderboard, only to be surpassed again later. This historical churn demonstrates that the runner-up spot is highly contested and sensitive to new model releases, making it a fertile ground for prediction.
The ranking of AI models has substantial economic and strategic implications. For the companies involved, a top position on a respected leaderboard like the Chatbot Arena can directly influence enterprise sales, developer mindshare, and talent recruitment. Venture capital and public market investments often flow towards perceived leaders in a technological wave. A company consistently holding the #2 spot could be valued as a strong challenger with credible potential to eventually reach #1, affecting its market capitalization and ability to fund further research. Beyond corporate competition, the outcome influences the broader technology ecosystem. The model in second place often becomes a popular alternative for developers and businesses seeking to avoid vendor lock-in with the market leader. Its capabilities shape what applications are built, from coding assistants and customer service bots to new forms of creative and analytical tools. If the #2 model is open-source, like Meta's Llama, it could democratize access to near-state-of-the-art AI, accelerating innovation outside major corporations. Conversely, if it is another closed model, it may reinforce a market dominated by a few well-funded entities. The result also has geopolitical dimensions, as national governments view leadership in foundational AI models as a component of economic and strategic power.
As of late 2024, the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with style control on shows a tight race for positions below OpenAI's GPT-4 series. Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet and various iterations of Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro are the primary contenders for the #2 and #3 ranks, with their scores often separated by only a few Elo points. Meta's Llama 3.1 405B model has also entered the top tier, applying pressure as a powerful open-weight alternative. The landscape remains fluid, with each company on a quarterly or semi-annual release cycle for major model updates. The focus of recent development has shifted toward improving reasoning capabilities, handling longer contexts reliably, and reducing operational costs, all factors that could influence future arena scores.
The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard is a public ranking of large language models created by the Large Model Systems Organization (LMSYS). It uses an Elo rating system based on millions of blind, head-to-head user votes to determine which AI chatbot provides the best responses in practice, rather than on standardized tests.
'Style control on' is a filter applied during the evaluation process on the Chatbot Arena. It attempts to normalize the length and formatting of model responses before users vote, reducing the bias toward models that generate longer or more structurally verbose outputs. This aims to judge the substantive quality of the content more fairly.
The arena scores on the leaderboard update continuously in near real-time as new user votes are collected and processed. The leaderboard table itself is typically refreshed and stabilized for display at regular intervals, often daily or weekly, to provide a clear snapshot of the current rankings.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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