M15 Fergana: Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov vs Oleg Kolninov
PM $72.6
1
3
M15 Fergana: Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov vs Oleg Kolninov
PM $72.6
1
3
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $72.6
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market refers to the tennis match between Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov and Oleg Kolninov in the M15 Fergana, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov' if Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov advances against Oleg Kolninov. This market will resolve to 'Oleg Kolninov' if Oleg Kolninov advances against Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is a tennis match between Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov and Oleg Kolninov in the M15 Fergana Qualifying draw, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 1:00AM ET [1]. The winner market resolves to the player who advances. It resolves to 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is a walkover, or has no determined winner by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The primary resolution source is official International Tennis Federation information, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-03T05:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a record of when the match was played or resolved.
The set handicap markets are titled "Set Handicap" at -1.5 and +1.5 for each player [1]. The supplied excerpt does not describe their settlement terms, so none are stated here.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z, and our system retrieved the record at 2026-10-27T02:38:16.007Z [1]. These are past values, not current prices. The observation time is when the provider recorded the prices, and the retrieval time is when we fetched the record.
In the winner market, Toshmukhamedov is priced at 0.33 and Kolninov at 0.67 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The two set handicap markets show prices of 0.495 and 0.505 [1]. They are separate contracts from the winner market, so their prices should not be compared with it or averaged with it.
All three saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not flagged as partial [1]. The provider's warning states that this does not establish that the listings cover every possible real-world outcome [1]. Nothing can be inferred about any omitted outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence includes no volume, liquidity, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep these markets are. It does not explain why prices are where they are. It also contains no match result, no confirmation that the match was played, and no reporting after the observation time [1]. Because the snapshot was recorded before the listed scheduled start, these prices reflect only that earlier moment. Whether the match resolves to a player or to 50-50 cannot be determined from the supplied record.
References
- Polymarket: M15 Fergana: Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov vs Oleg Kolninov. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This market concerns a men's tennis match in the M15 Fergana event, listed in the Sports category on Polymarket. The match is between Akhmadjon Toshmukhamedov and Oleg Kolninov, and the source describes it as a qualifying match originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET [1]. The source's scheduled time is the time the match was set for, not a confirmed record that it was played or when it finished. The main contract resolves to whichever player advances against the other [1]. A second, separate set of contracts covers set handicaps, where one player is given a 1.5 set adjustment in each direction [1]. Each contract is tied to the same underlying match result, so the two handicap contracts are mirror images of each other in the saved data. The contract rules also set out how unusual outcomes are handled. If the match is canceled without being played, ends in a tie, or has no determined winner by November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. If a match starts but is not completed and one player advances because the opponent retires, defaults, or is disqualified, the market resolves to the player who advances [1]. A walkover, where a player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically, also resolves 50-50 [1]. The source names the International Tennis Federation as the primary resolution source and says that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time for the market is November 3, 2026 at 05:00 UTC [1]. This is a date stated in the contract rules and is not evidence of when the match will be played or reported.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which player advances in this specific tennis match, as defined by the listed rules [1]. Because the rules define 50-50 outcomes for cancellations, ties, walkovers, and matches with no determined winner by November 10, 2026, the contract does not simply track the sporting outcome in every case [1]. The separate set handicap contracts measure a different question, namely how the match is decided by set adjustments, as described in the saved market titles [1]. Traders reading the market should check the resolution wording and the named resolution source rather than assume the title alone describes every possible result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if the match is canceled?
If the match is canceled and not played at all, the market resolves 50-50 under the stated rules [1].
What counts as an advance in this market?
The rules say the market resolves to the player who advances against the other. If a match begins but is not completed because the opponent retires, defaults, or is disqualified, the player who advances is the resolution winner [1].
Who decides the resolution?
The primary resolution source is official information from the International Tennis Federation, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What is the deadline for a winner to be determined?
The rules state that if a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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