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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Name: Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.86M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.86M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.86M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$14.86M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market on predicting the launch date of Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on predicting the launch date of Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or us"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.04M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.33M
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $12.04M
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/RZwi3i" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?"></iframe>

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)