Name: Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Poly	51%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Poly	41%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Poly	26%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market on predicting the launch date of Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or us"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $588.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $41.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $253.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2025): Vol $237.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $97.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

39¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/RZwi3i" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?"></iframe>

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

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Events (1)

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Markets (3)

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

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