GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Orenburg Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

Name: Orenburg Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
End: 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Orenburg Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

Vol

$1.71K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.71K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.71K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	96%
Will A Just Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	2%
Will New People win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	2%
Will LDPR win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	2%
Will CPRF win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	1%
Will Communists of Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	1%
Will Party of Pensioners win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$1.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast as a result of this election. The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Orenburg Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Orenburg Oblast as a result of this election."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $81.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 96.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPRF win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will LDPR win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $167
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will A Just Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $270
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will New People win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $377
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Party of Pensioners win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Communists of Russia win the next Orenburg Oblast Parliament elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $193
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics