GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2028?

Total Volume

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US real GDP growth in 2028?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)	Kalshi	13%
GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)	Kalshi	11%
GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)	Kalshi	10%
GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2028? (0.1% to 0.5%)	Kalshi	9%
GDP growth in 2028? (3.1% to 3.5%)	Kalshi	8%
GDP growth in 2028? (6.1% or Above)	Kalshi	6%
GDP growth in 2028? (3.6% to 4.0%)	Kalshi	6%
GDP growth in 2028? (1.1% to 1.5%)	Kalshi	6%
GDP growth in 2028? (4.1% to 4.5%)	Kalshi	5%
GDP growth in 2028? (4.6% to 5.0%)	Kalshi	4%
GDP growth in 2028? (5.6% to 6.0%)	Kalshi	1%
GDP growth in 2028? (5.1% to 5.5%)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2028 If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2028 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2028 GDP in early 2029. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US real GDP growth in 2028?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2028

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is X Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product, GDP, growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2028 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2028 GDP in early 2029. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is above 6.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration Value will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. GDP growth in 2028? (6.1% or Above)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. GDP growth in 2028? (5.6% to 6.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. GDP growth in 2028? (5.1% to 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. GDP growth in 2028? (4.6% to 5.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. GDP growth in 2028? (4.1% to 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. GDP growth in 2028? (3.6% to 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. GDP growth in 2028? (3.1% to 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. GDP growth in 2028? (1.1% to 1.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. GDP growth in 2028? (0.1% to 0.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 28, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US real GDP growth in 2028?

Volume$0.00

Markets14

14 of 14

Sort:

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is between 2.6% to 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration V

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is below 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration Value will

KALSHI

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is between 0.6% to 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration V

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US real GDP growth in 2028?

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GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

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Events (1)

US real GDP growth in 2028?

Markets (14)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US real GDP growth in 2028?

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.6% to 3.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (1.6% to 2.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2028? (2.1% to 2.5%)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.0% or Below)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

GDP growth in 2028? (0.6% to 1.0%)

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