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This market will resolve to "Yes" if in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority are fully removed from the list subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". People travelling on Palestinian Authority-issued do
Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the removal of Palestinian Authority travelers from President Trump's new travel ban by the January 31, 2026 deadline. With the "Yes" share trading at just 2 cents on Polymarket, the market implies a mere 2% chance of the proclamation being amended as specified. This pricing indicates the market views the policy change as highly unlikely, bordering on a near-certain "No" outcome.
The overwhelmingly low probability is driven by core political and policy realities. First, the proclamation itself, issued on December 16, 2025, is a central and recent policy action by the Trump administration. Reversing a core component of a major security-focused executive action within six weeks would represent a dramatic and politically costly reversal, making it an inherently low-probability event. Second, the specific inclusion of Palestinian Authority documents aligns with long-standing policy positions from this administration and key congressional allies regarding the status of Palestinian governance and security cooperation. There is no visible political impetus or negotiation suggesting a rapid policy shift is underway.
Given the current 2% pricing, a meaningful shift would require a direct and unexpected signal from the administration. A public statement from the White House or the Department of Homeland Security hinting at a review or amendment for this specific category could move the market. However, with the deadline just 15 days away, the window for such a reversal is extremely narrow. The most plausible catalyst for a "Yes" outcome would be a swift, quiet administrative fix, but the market correctly prices this as a remote possibility given the proclamation's intent and timing. Absent a definitive official statement, these odds are likely to remain stable until resolution.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether President Donald Trump's December 16, 2025, proclamation, titled 'Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,' will be amended to fully remove individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority from its list of nationalities subject to entry suspensions. The market resolves based on whether this removal occurs by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The proclamation represents a significant expansion of Trump-era immigration policies, specifically targeting Palestinian travelers for the first time in a formal, blanket restriction. The topic has generated intense interest as it sits at the intersection of U.S. immigration policy, national security rhetoric, and the geopolitics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Observers are tracking legal challenges, diplomatic pressure, and potential shifts in the political landscape that could influence the administration's decision to maintain or rescind this specific provision before the deadline.
The current proclamation exists within a long history of U.S. immigration restrictions. The most direct precedent is Executive Order 13769, signed by President Trump on January 27, 2017, which suspended entry for nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries. After legal challenges, it was replaced by Proclamation 9645 in September 2017, which tailored restrictions based on a global review of foreign governments' information-sharing practices. The Supreme Court upheld this version in the 2018 case Trump v. Hawaii. The inclusion of Palestinian Authority documents in the 2025 proclamation marks a new development. Unlike prior bans focused on sovereign states, this targets documents from a non-state entity, raising novel legal questions. Historically, Palestinian travel has faced extensive restrictions due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but a formal U.S. entry ban of this scope is unprecedented. The timeline from the proclamation's issuance on December 16, 2025, to the January 31, 2026, resolution deadline allows for a condensed period of legal and political maneuvering similar to, but faster than, the battles over the 2017 orders.
The resolution of this market carries significant implications for U.S. foreign policy and human rights. A failure to remove the ban would signal a sustained commitment to restrictive immigration policies based on national origin and document type, potentially encouraging similar actions by allied governments. It would directly impact thousands of Palestinian students, scholars, medical patients, and families with U.S. ties, severing academic and professional connections. Conversely, a removal would be seen as a concession to legal and diplomatic pressure, potentially indicating a shift in policy approach or a strategic calculation to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. The outcome will also serve as a key indicator of the administration's capacity to implement its agenda against judicial and congressional headwinds, setting a precedent for future executive actions on immigration during this term. The specific focus on Palestinian documents injects the U.S. deeper into the contentious politics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, affecting its perceived neutrality and diplomatic leverage.
As of late December 2025, the proclamation is active law. The American Civil Liberties Union and other civil rights groups have filed lawsuits in multiple federal district courts seeking preliminary injunctions to block enforcement, specifically challenging the inclusion of Palestinian document holders. The Department of Justice is defending the proclamation. Diplomatic protests have been lodged by the Palestinian Authority and several Arab nations. Congressional Democrats have announced plans to introduce legislation condemning the ban and to hold oversight hearings in early January 2026. The administration has not signaled any intent to modify the proclamation voluntarily.
The administration cites Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which grants the President broad authority to suspend entry of any aliens deemed detrimental to U.S. interests. The 2025 proclamation, like its 2017 predecessors, invokes this statute alongside national security concerns regarding information-sharing and identity verification protocols.
No. The proclamation explicitly exempts lawful permanent residents (green card holders) and U.S. citizens. It applies to foreign nationals outside the U.S. seeking new visas or entry using Palestinian Authority-issued travel documents.
While the legal mechanism is similar, the 2025 ban uniquely includes a non-state entity, the Palestinian Authority. The 2017 bans targeted sovereign nations. The 2025 proclamation also follows a specific global review process outlined in prior orders, though critics argue its findings regarding the PA are politically motivated.
A nationwide preliminary injunction would temporarily block enforcement of the banned provisions, potentially for all listed groups or specifically for Palestinians. However, for this market to resolve 'Yes,' the provision must be formally removed from the proclamation text by the administration, not just enjoined by a court.
Yes, the proclamation includes waiver provisions for individuals who demonstrate that denial of entry would cause undue hardship, that their entry would not pose a security threat, and that it would be in the national interest. However, the waiver process in previous bans was criticized for being opaque and rarely granted.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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