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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-11 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Illinois's 11th congressional district. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation when all 2026 House elections are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. Illinois's 11th district is a politically competitive seat located in the southwestern suburbs of Chicago, covering parts of Will and Cook counties, including areas like Joliet, Naperville, and Bolingbrook. The district's demographic composition and shifting political preferences make it a frequent target for both major parties. The 2026 race will occur during a midterm cycle where control of the House could be closely contested, amplifying national attention on swing districts like IL-11. Interest in this market stems from political analysts, bettors, and observers tracking partisan control of Congress, regional political realignments in the Chicago suburbs, and the performance of specific candidates in a bellwether district.
Illinois's 11th congressional district has a history of competitive elections and partisan change. The district's boundaries were significantly redrawn during the 2010 redistricting cycle, transforming it from a Republican-leaning area into a more competitive seat. Democrat Bill Foster won the newly configured district in 2012, defeating Republican incumbent Judy Biggert. Foster has held the seat since, but his margins of victory have fluctuated. In the 2014 Republican wave election, Foster won by just over 5 points. His victories became more comfortable in the 2018 and 2020 cycles, aligning with stronger Democratic performances in suburban areas nationwide during the Trump presidency. The 2022 election, however, saw a shift. While Foster defeated Republican Catalina Lauf by about 9 points, this margin was narrower than President Biden's performance in the district in 2020, where he won by roughly 13 points. This suggested some reversion toward Republicans in the midterm environment. The district's political behavior reflects broader trends in American politics, where educated suburban constituencies have moved away from the Republican Party since 2016, though economic concerns can pull them back. The 2026 election will test whether this movement is a permanent realignment or a temporary shift.
The outcome of the IL-11 House election has implications beyond one congressional seat. As a suburban swing district, it acts as a barometer for national political trends, particularly the Democratic Party's strength in metropolitan suburbs and the Republican Party's ability to recapture these voters. A Republican victory here would signal potential gains in similar districts across the Midwest and Northeast, possibly contributing to a shift in control of the House of Representatives. The district's economy includes manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare sectors. The elected representative influences federal policy on infrastructure spending, trade, and healthcare, directly affecting local businesses and workers. For residents, the election determines advocacy for federal projects like improvements to Interstate 55 or funding for local research institutions, including Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory located in the district.
As of late 2024, the political landscape for the 2026 IL-11 election is taking shape. Incumbent Representative Bill Foster has not made a formal announcement regarding his 2026 re-election campaign. The Republican field remains undefined, with no declared major challengers. Political observers are monitoring local elections in 2024 and 2025 for clues about voter sentiment. National party committees are beginning their initial assessments of race competitiveness for the 2026 cycle, with IL-11 likely to be reviewed for potential investment. Redistricting is not a factor, as Illinois completed its congressional map in 2021, which will remain in effect for the 2026 election.
Illinois's 11th district is located in the southwestern suburbs of Chicago. It includes most of Will County and parts of Cook County, encompassing cities like Joliet, Naperville, Bolingbrook, and Aurora. The district does not include the city of Chicago itself.
The current U.S. Representative for Illinois's 11th congressional district is Democrat Bill Foster. He was first elected to this seat in 2012 and has been re-elected every two years since. Prior to serving in the House, Foster represented Illinois's 14th district from 2008 to 2011.
Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives are held every two years. All 435 voting seats are up for election in each even-numbered year. The 2026 election for IL-11 is a midterm election, occurring in the middle of the presidential term.
If the incumbent representative chooses not to run, both major parties will hold primary elections to select new nominees. An open seat typically attracts more candidates and can lead to a more volatile and expensive general election campaign.
Prediction markets like this one rely on specific resolution sources, typically major media outlets like the Associated Press or decision desks at television networks. The market resolves when these sources conclusively call the race for a candidate, based on their listed party affiliation.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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