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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Name: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
End: 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.80M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Vol

$4.80M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.80M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.80M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Poly	96%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Poly	90%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Poly	77%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Poly	67%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Poly	51%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Poly	38%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Poly	30%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Poly	25%
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Poly	17%
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Poly	7%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$4.80M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (536 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.80M
* **Total Liquidity:** $202.7K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 23.69)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $349.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $398.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $874.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $887.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $603.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $584.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $250.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $205.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $411.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $66.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $171.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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