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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

Name: ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
End: 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$91.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

ECB Interest Rates: June 2026

Vol

$91.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $91.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $91.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Poly	85%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	Poly	13%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Poly	2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$91.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be trea

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 11, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be trea

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the chan"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $91.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $16.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $16.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $19.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 11, 2026): Vol $19.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy