Will Susan Collins run for reelection? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Susan Collins run for reelection?

Total Volume

$270.00

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Markets

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Will Susan Collins run for reelection?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $270.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $270.00

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will Susan Collins run for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Susan Collins run for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2026?	Kalshi	77%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$270.00

Volume

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About This Event

Before Nov 3, 2026 If Susan Collins has announced that they will run for Maine's U.S. Senate seat in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Susan Collins run for reelection?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 3, 2026

If Susan Collins has announced that they will run for Maine's U.S. Senate seat in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Susan Collins has announced that they will run for Maine's U.S. Senate seat in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $270
* **Total Liquidity:** $805.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Susan Collins run for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $270
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

77¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/RlSbbJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Susan Collins run for reelection?"></iframe>

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Will Susan Collins run for reelection?

Will Susan Collins run for reelection?

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Will Susan Collins run for reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)