What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give roughly a 1 in 50 chance that former President Bill Clinton will be formally charged or indicted by any U.S. federal or state jurisdiction before the end of March 2026. With about 37 days until the deadline, traders collectively see this outcome as very unlikely.

This low probability suggests traders believe the legal and political hurdles to charging a former president, especially one who left office over two decades ago, are extremely high within this short timeframe.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

Several factors explain the low odds. First, there is no publicly known active criminal investigation targeting Bill Clinton. While he has faced numerous legal and political controversies throughout his career, from the Whitewater investigation to the Monica Lewinsky scandal, those major events concluded years ago without criminal charges against him personally.

Second, the practical reality is that charging a former president is an extraordinary step with significant political ramifications. Any prosecutor would need an exceptionally strong, new, and clear-cut legal case to proceed, which has not materialized in public view.

Finally, Clinton is 77 years old and has largely receded from daily political combat. The market reflects a view that reopening old legal battles or discovering new ones capable of leading to charges in just over a month is not a realistic prospect.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main date is the market’s resolution deadline: March 31, 2026. Any formal charging announcement would need to occur publicly before that date.

A shift in the prediction would require a major, unexpected legal development. This could include an official statement from a prosecutor’s office, a grand jury subpoena reported by major news outlets like the New York Times or Associated Press, or a filing in a court docket. In the absence of such a concrete event, the odds are expected to remain near zero.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets are generally reliable at aggregating collective judgment on clear yes/no outcomes, especially when there is no major new information. For low-probability, high-profile events like this, markets often accurately reflect the absence of a credible path to the “yes” outcome.

The main limitation here is the potential for a completely unexpected, “black swan” event. However, markets correctly price such surprises as extremely rare until evidence emerges. The very small amount of money wagered on this question also signals that traders see it as a settled issue with little uncertainty to bet on.