Name: NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-23T00:00:00.000Z

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NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?	Poly	56%
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?	Poly	39%
Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?	Poly	17%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 23, 2026 (158 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $198
* **Total Liquidity:** $790
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $105
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 23, 2026): Vol $37
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

157d 12h remaining

Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM

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37¢

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Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

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Events (1)

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Markets (3)

Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

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Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

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NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

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